Results of the last trading day:
After Brexit the rate of euro/dollar has decreased on five figures (-4,51%) to 1,0911. As soon as results of vote have been officially announced, in the foreign exchange market the correctional phase has begun.
Referendum in the past. The peak of volatility is passed, now expects us long flat. Kickback has constituted 277 points. For a start it is quite good. Now the price needs to return to the balance sheet lb line which passes through 1,1208.
Expectations for today:
Today it's Monday. This day I always consider movement against Friday. If on Friday euro was weakened, so today from couple I wait for growth. As intra day volatility in the market remains high, according to the forecast I wait for kickback to 1,1115. In the moment jump to 1,1154 is possible.
The head of the government of Scotland Nikola Sterdzhen during week-end I have declared that the country intends to veto results of Brexit. The country does not agree with an exit of Great Britain from the European Union. The kickback is stronger, the probability is less that Britain will leave the EU. The referendum has no legal force. It is the form of direct declaration of will of citizens which is expressed in vote. Especially overweight was insignificant.
News of the present day:
- The USA – Balance of foreign trade in goods for May.
- USA-preliminary data on the PMI index in service trade for June.
– Speech of the president of European Central Bank Mario Draghi.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,0982, at most – 1,1118, closing – 1,1065.
The rate of euro/dollar bargains in a zone of a zashkal, D4 line MA is lower. On Monday important macrodata it isn't planned therefore according to the forecast I wait for the correctional movement to the 112th degree. At 20:30 Moscow time M. Draghi acts. It is interesting to listen to him that he thinks of vote and what actions from the Central Bank in the current situation will follow.
Results of the last trading day:
Expectations on yesterday were completely met. The rate of euro/dollar was recovered from a minimum 1,1236 to 1,1337 (the purpose was 1,1316). Euro/dollar and pound/dollar raised, there were no survey results yet from Opinium which has shown growth of supporters of "Brekzit". On it euro/dollar was filled up with 1,1337 on 1,1269. After the publication of results of new polls, the rate of euro/dollar has shifted a maximum on 1,1349.
Expectations for today:
Today all attention to a referendum in Great Britain. Contradictory polls on "Brekzit" since May do not allow to trade normally (I speak not about intra day trade). Tomorrow after promulgation of results of vote it will fade into the background. The economy of the USA and a rate of FRS will come under the spotlight again.
Vote concerning membership of the country in the EU will be extended till 00:00 Moscow time. In day of a referendum there is no desire to do the forecast. I will allocate only the price range 1,1294 - 1,1375 in which I expect fluctuation of euro before announcement of preliminary results.
News of the present day:
– a referendum in Great Britain. Vote concerning membership of the country in the EU will be extended till 00:00 Moscow time.
- there will be European indexes of business activity in occupational sectors and service sectors of France, Germany and the Eurozone.
– Number of requirements of an unemployment benefit in a week on June 12-18.
– Preliminary index of business activity in production for June.
– Sales in the primary market of housing for May.
– An index of leading indicators from SV for May.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1236, at most – 1,1316, closing – 1,1296.
Eurobulls without efforts have returned a course to level 1,1337, there was no poll from Opinium yet. Now euro is quoted to dollar on 1,1343. Growth was slowed down about the 67th degree. Because of a referendum in Great Britain I don't do the forecast. On hours the road is free to 1,1368/75. As support I allocate level 1,1294.
Results of the last trading day:
Expectations on yesterday were completely met. The rate of euro/dollar was recovered from a minimum 1,1236 to 1,1337 (the purpose was 1,1316). Euro/dollar and pound/dollar raised, there were no survey results yet from Opinium which has shown growth of supporters of "Brekzit". On it euro/dollar was filled up with 1,1337 on 1,1269. After the publication of results of new polls, the rate of euro/dollar has shifted a maximum on 1,1349.
Expectations for today:
Today all attention to a referendum in Great Britain. Contradictory polls on "Brekzit" since May do not allow to trade normally (I speak not about intra day trade). Tomorrow after promulgation of results of vote it will fade into the background. The economy of the USA and a rate of FRS will come under the spotlight again.
Vote concerning membership of the country in the EU will be extended till 00:00 Moscow time. In day of a referendum there is no desire to do the forecast. I will allocate only the price range 1,1294 - 1,1375 in which I expect fluctuation of euro before announcement of preliminary results.
News of the present day:
– a referendum in Great Britain. Vote concerning membership of the country in the EU will be extended till 00:00 Moscow time.
- there will be European indexes of business activity in occupational sectors and service sectors of France, Germany and the Eurozone.
– Number of requirements of an unemployment benefit in a week on June 12-18.
– Preliminary index of business activity in production for June.
– Sales in the primary market of housing for May.
– An index of leading indicators from SV for May.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1236, at most – 1,1316, closing – 1,1296.
Eurobulls without efforts have returned a course to level 1,1337, there was no poll from Opinium yet. Now euro is quoted to dollar on 1,1343. Growth was slowed down about the 67th degree. Because of a referendum in Great Britain I don't do the forecast. On hours the road is free to 1,1368/75. As support I allocate level 1,1294.
Results of the last trading day:
On Tuesday euro was closed in minus. After breakdown of support in the area 1,1330, the rate has decreased to 1,1302. From it the rebound was expected. Before speech of the head of the ECB M. Draghi sellers have driven away buyers to 1,1285. Closing the sentry of a candle is lower 1,13 has cancelled the scenario on strengthening of euro.
Draghi has expressed concern about low inflation in the performance and has hinted at readiness of the Central Bank to take new measures of stimulation. Euro exchange rate has reacted with decrease to 1,1239 to such statements.
Expectations for today:
In Asia euro has updated a sessional minimum and is so far traded in a green zone. The rate constitutes 1,1266. European calendar empty. High volatility in the market will remain before the end of the week. The fact that the referendum in Great Britain will take place on Thursday, but not on the weekend pleases. It will help to avoid big gaps.
In recent days speculators have shaken the market on polls on Brexit therefore to closing of the European session I expect recovery of euro exchange rate to level 1,1316. Now we will consider a technical picture why I have taken this level.
News of the present day:
- Canada will publish an index of retail sales for April.
- The eurozone – the Index of consumer confidence for June.
– Speech of the head of the Federal Reserve J. Yellen, secondary market sales of housing for June.
- The USA – Inventories of oil and oil products in a week on June 12-18.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1236, at most – 1,1316, closing – 1,1296.
I said more than once that on pair EUR/USD the turning zone is between the 112th and 135th degrees. On the 112th degree of Gunn the final triangle was created. Their exit it was up. So far the price was recovered to 1,1265.
As an economic calendar empty, at the biddings in Europe I consider strengthening of euro to dollar to the 45th degree – 1,1289. If recovery goes according to the plan, then to closing of the European session I wait for return of the price to the trend line – 1,1316. This level is strengthened by the 67th degree, and also by the evening there will be a balance sheet Lb line there (the average line with the period 55). The scenario on growth will be cancelled when closing an hour candle lower than 1,1236.
Results of the last trading day:
On Monday euro exchange rate was closed by growth in relation to Friday closing and decrease to the level of opening of the market in Asia. At Asian session the common currency has become stronger against the American dollar to 1,1382. The dollar was weakened on decrease in fears of Brekzit. The last polls have reflected growth of number of opponents of an exit of Great Britain from the EU.
On good polls a rate the pound/dollar has grown by 371 points, to 1,4717. Euro/dollar after morning rally has returned to level 1,1300. Depreciation of euro has been caused by fall of a rate of euro/pound.
Expectations for today:
From important events of today: two-day performance J. Yellen with the semi-annual report before the Congress of the USA (on June 21-22). In the Congress she will speak about state of the economy and monetary policy. Investors will wait from it for a hint for the term of increase of a rate by the Federal Reserve. Its task not to irritate the markets in a referendum threshold in Great Britain which will take place on Thursday. As on Monday euro was corrected against US dollar following the results of day from it strengthening to 1,1359 is expected.
News of the present day:
- Great Britain – amount of crediting of a public sector for May.
- Germany – an index of economic moods of ZEW for June.
- Great Britain – industrial orders from CBI for June.
– speech of the head of the ECB M. Draghi.
– speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Yellen.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1303, at most – 1,1383, closing – 1,1359.
In case of decrease euro exchange rate stopped on the 45th and 67th degree. The hour indicator of the joint-stock company has unloaded. It was necessary to the oscillator of stochastics to return to a zone of purchases and it is possible to begin a new growth phase.
Now the rate is at the level of 1,1330. If on minima to draw a line, we will get support. I think, it will not resist and the rate will decrease to 1,1303. From it I wait for strengthening of European currency to 1,1383. Here I put on soft tone J. Yellen more. Performance is planned at 17:00 Moscow time. Depreciation of euro to level 1,1276 will cancel my scenario on growth. On day TF it was created pinbar. I do not consider it yet as the pound is not weakened.
Results of the last trading day:
On Friday the rate of euro/dollar was during the day traded around level 1,1262. At Asian session buyers have made an attempt to be fixed above the trend line. Attempt was not crowned with success. The price has returned from level 1,1296 to 1,1245. Participants of the market did not take active actions in anticipation of days off.
Expectations for today:
The biddings on Monday in the foreign exchange market have opened decrease on dollar. The gap has constituted 53 points. The current quotation 1,1375 against Friday closing 1,1273. It was reaction to new polls to Brexit. According to the data BMG for Herald wishing "to remain" in the EU has constituted 53,3%, "to leave" - 46,7%. 1064 adults have taken part from June 10 to June 15 in poll.
The price has reached the upper bound of MA of the channel. It is the strong level of resistance. As today Monday, according to the forecast I consider movement against Asia. I allow increase of a rate to 1,1391, later I expect to see return to a mark 1,1338.
Till Thursday the market on couples with euro and pound will be thin. Brokers have raised marginal requirements in communication by the forthcoming referendum in Great Britain. High volatility will remain before the end of the week.
News of the present day:
- in Germany will publish a price index of producers for May.
- Speech of the head of bank of Japan Kuroda.
- there will be a monthly report of the Central Bank of Germany.
- Canada – Wholesales April.
- Australia – the Index of leading indicators from SV for April.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1308, at most – 1,1391, closing – 1,1342.
The rate of euro/dollar has punched the trend line. From the level of 135 degrees of euro I have become stronger to the 202nd. Growth of couple is contained at present by the U3 line. It is in 1% of the balance sheet Lb line (the average line with the period 55).
After a morning gap it was activated week pinbar. Read ideas for euro here. As on Friday euro was flat, today it is worth expecting or the unidirectional movement up at all three sessions, or model a lodge. I incline to the second more. Growth to 1,1391 and decline in the rate to 1,1338. On graphics at me the two 45th degree. The first level is calculated from the current maximum, the second – from the predicted level 1,1391.
Results of the last trading day:
On Thursday the rate of euro/dollar has fallen to 1,1130 after the British pound. To closing of day buyers have won back about 70% of losses. The price has returned to level 1,1251. Couple was sharply developed on news about murder of the member of the British parliament Joe Cox. Armed attack has been committed against it during a meeting with voters.
Due to the tragic event the head of Bank of England has cancelled yesterday's performance. In the market directly there were "rumors" that the referendum can be cancelled or postponed for other number. To dollar all currencies have become stronger.
Expectations for today:
On Thursday the rate of euro/dollar has beaten off the trend line. I hope that the murderer did not know the technical analysis and as its actions will be reflected in currency rates. Nevertheless, it has changed moods of those who bought the American dollar.
As a result the other day it was created turning pinbar (a candle with a long lower shadow). That it was activated, it is necessary to be fixed higher than the level 1,1294. According to intra day schedules break is impossible to me today. Economic calendar empty. For Friday the scenario with lateral motion under the trend line (H1.1415-H1.1294) in the range 1,1235-1,1280 approaches more.
News of the present day:
- The eurozone will publish the paying balance taking into account seasonal fluctuations April.
- in Canada there will be a consumer price index for May. The USA – number of the issued construction licenses, laying of new houses for May.
- The eurozone – Speech of the president of European Central Bank Mario Draghi.
- Baker Hughes – number of the working drilling rigs.
- Canada – Speech of the deputy of upravlyayueshchy Bank of Canada Caroline Wilkins.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1235, at most – 1,1280, closing – 1,1252.
The rate of euro/dollar decreased to a cross hairs of two lines: the first line has been drawn through minima the 1,1232-1,1188, second – through 1,0516-1,0821. Additional strengthening to a zone 1,1130 - 1,1140 was given by the 135th degree.
So far "eurobulls" have won back 80% of losses of yesterday's fall to level 1,1130. The price has returned to the bear trend line. From a minimum growth of couple has constituted 112 degrees.
Considering that on Friday a calendar empty, I consider fluctuations of euro under the trend line. I incline to opinion that the final triangle will be created. I do not take M. Draghi into account as it exerts strong impact on the market only during a press conference after a meeting of European Central Bank.
Despite a day pinbar hardly anyone will want to be bought aggressively by euro before output and forthcoming new polls for "Brekzit". The strong zone of resistance is formed by levels 1,1295-1,13. This that area to which the course without news after breakdown of the trend line is possible.
Results of the last trading day:
On Wednesday euro/dollar has finished the biddings in plus. U.S. Fed I have made the decision to leave the level of the main interest rates without change in the range of 0,25% - 0,50%. All have voted for preserving rates unanimously. FRS plans two increases of rates this year, however six heads predict only one. According to the latest data of CME Group FedWatch of the future for a rate, after a yesterday's meeting the probability of its increase in July has decreased from 21% to 7%. Increase of rates means it is worth expecting in September.
The rate of euro/dollar for the decision has reacted with growth to a mark 1,1276, after performance J. Yellen – to 1,1298. She has told nothing new.
The index of industrial production in the USA for May has constituted-0,4% (the forecast was-0,3%, the previous value of 0,6%).
Expectations for today:
The rate of euro/dollar was stabilized at the level of 1,1262. As the hour indicator of the joint-stock company is in a positive zone, in the first half of day I wait for decline in the rate to 1,1245. As from a yesterday's maximum sharp kickback has followed, I do not consider updating of a maximum today. After a meeting of Bank of England I expect strengthening to 1,1295 from euro.
News of the present day:
– The solution of ShNB on an interest rate. Press conference of the chairman of the board of directors of ShNB.
- the release of the economic bulletin of European Central Bank is planned.
- in Great Britain there will be a report on amount of retail sales for May.
- the eurozone will publish final data on a consumer price index for May.
– the decision of Bank of England on an interest rate, distribution of voices on an interest rate, a release of the summary on monetary management from Bank of England, amount of the redemption of assets Bank of England.
- The USA – the Consumer price index for May, a production index according to FRB of Philadelphia for June, number of primary jobless claims on June 6-12, balance of a paying balance for 1 quarter 2016.
– speech of the head of Bank of England Mark Carney.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1245, at most – 1,1295, closing – 1,1276.
The rate of euro/dollar has punched the trend line. "Evrobyka" not directly it was punched as there passed still the balance sheet line and the 45th degree. After a meeting of U.S. Fed euro exchange rate has directed to the 90th degree.
On the hour schedule we see that serious resistance was formed at the level of 1,13. That to overcome it, it is necessary to take dispersal. For this purpose it is necessary to depart to the 45th degree on 1,1245. It is impossible to fall below, there passes trend from a minimum 1,1189. If to look at day TF, then we will possibly leave top to 1,1420 on W-of figurative model.
Results of the last trading day:
Following the results of the yesterday's biddings of euro/dollar it was closed by decrease on 83 points at the level of 1,1206. The common currency has got under pressure after fall of profitability of 10-year bonds in Germany below a zero mark. At present it constitutes-0,001% against-0,027% in case of the maximum fall.
At the American session euro and pound have updated the minima against dollar after release of new polls which have shown increase in supporters of "Brekzit".
Yesterday polls of TNS and YouGov have been published. According to TNS: 47% of British are ready to vote for an exit from the EU, 40% - to remain in the EU, 13% - were not determined with the choice. 2497 people have taken part in online poll. According to YouGov: 46%-is wanted to be left, 39% - to remain, 15% - were not determined.
Polls have reflected increase in supporters of an exit of Britain from the EU in comparison with the previous values, and the British on them was slightly weakened to US dollar and euro. To a campaign the market has reached a boiling point. Participants of the market have reconciled to an exit of Britain from the EU and have switched to a meeting of FRS.
Expectations for today:
On Tuesday two-day committee meeting of the public market of U.S. Fed has begun. Its results will be known at 21:00 Moscow time. It is expected that rates will be left without change. After a meeting the press conference of the chairman of FRS J. Yellen will take place and forecasts are published.
If profitability on the German 10 summer bonds leaves in a positive zone, then euro/dollar will move to 1,1240 up (the trend line). After performance J. Yellen it is unknown where euro will be closed.
News of the present day:
- in Great Britain there will be an index of change of an average salary, an index of change of an average salary for April, change of number of jobless claims May
- the eurozone will publish trading balance taking into account seasonal fluctuations for April.
- Canada – scope change of sales at producers for April. The USA – a price index of producers for May, a production index according to FRB of New York June.
- in the USA – scope change of industrial production for May.
- The USA – Change of inventories of oil on June 6-12-3,2 million barrels
- The USA – the Solution of FOMC at the rate, the economic forecast and statements of FOMC.
- The USA – a press conference of the head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen.
- The USA – net volume of purchases of long-term securities for April.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast till 21:00 Moscow time: at least – 1,1189 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1236.
Against decline in yield of 10 summer bonds in Germany euro has flown by the 45 and 67 degree. Sellers have won back more than 70% which they have incurred on June 3 on weak data on the labor market in the USA.
As I have already told above, participants of the market adapted to negative polls to Brekzit. And it means, internally they are ready to purchases of euro. If British vote for an exit from the EU, process of an exit very long and will take not one year. To traders process to a referendum, but not is important later.
On hour indicators CCI and stochastics were created bull divergence therefore according to the forecast I consider strengthening of euro, but not easing. Also I have taken the shown "double basis" model into account. So to say, for correction conditions are satisfied. It was necessary to pass 1,1220.
I do not know as the market will react to performance Yellen. If pressure upon euro amplifies, then euro will move to level 1,1144. Below this level there passes the trend line (it is carried out through minima 1,0516 and 1,0821).
Results of the last trading day:
On Monday euro was closed in plus against the American dollar. To opening of the American session the price was corrected from a minimum 1,1232 to 1,1278. From it bulls have lost all profit when in the market there was information that according to new poll of ICM the share of speakers for preserving Britain as a part of the EU has increased. The rate pound/dollar has raised on 150 points, to 1,4319. Cross-country of euro/pound has decreased on 60 points, to 0,7882. Euro/dollar I have departed to level 1,1237. Later the Guardian edition has denied this information, having reported that 53%, against – 47% are ready to vote for Brekzit.
Against recovery of cross-countries eurobulls managed to rise to level 1,1302.
Expectations for today:
After yesterday's growth on 65 points on the hour period the symmetric triangle was created. The triangle is a rally continuation figure. With respect thereto I consider strengthening of euro to 1,1320. If the pound is not weakened to dollar today, then to descend quite really to 1,1338. Significant news which could cause acute fluctuations in the market, it is not planned.
News of the present day:
- Great Britain will publish a consumer price index, an index of purchase prices of producers, an index of selling prices of producers and a retail price index for May.
- the eurozone will publish data on change of number occupied for 1 quarter 2016 and industrial output for April.
- in the USA there will be a report on amount of retail sales without sales accounting of cars May.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1285 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1320, closing – 1,1304.
The rate of euro/dollar has stopped in a zone between the 45th and 67th degrees. At the moment in a completion stage there is a symmetric triangle. Though the indicator of the joint-stock company is in positive area, I consider a price exit up as it is a movement continuation figure.
Before a meeting of FOMC of considerable strengthening of euro I do not expect. My purpose – 1,1320. Price levels will act as supports: 1,1275 and 1,1249. The scenario on growth will be cancelled when closing an hour candle lower than the level 1,1275.
On Monday euro has interrupted two-day decrease. After updating of a minimum in Asia it was recovered to US dollar to 1,1277 (+45 points). The common currency has strengthened the line items against the American dollar and the British pound thanks to cross-couples because of fears of a referendum in Great Britain which will take place on June 23.
Pair GBP/USD is traded on 1,4186. The British newspapers continue to publish contradictory survey results, than push away buyers from purchases. Participants of the markets are hedged from Brexit in the option market. For the last three trading days open interest on put options for the July future pound/dollar on strikes 1,41, 1,39, 1,38 and 1,36 has considerably increased. Open line items on options have decreased.
Economic calendar on Monday empty. From important events of week it is necessary to mark out meetings of U.S. Fed, England and Japan. On Tuesday there will be a report on consumer prices in Great Britain and the report on retail sales in the USA. For the evening the intra day purpose on pair EUR/USD remains on a mark 1,1285.
Results of the last trading day:
On Friday the rate of euro/dollar traded above the 112th degree before the American session. Euro/dollar has appeared under pressure against general strengthening of dollar because of depreciation of the British pound after the publication of results of new poll. According to poll of the ORB company for the The Independent newspaper, 55% of respondents have supported that the country left the EU, 45% - for preserving. Euro exchange rate to closing of the biddings in the States has decreased to 1,1245.
The published statistics not especially influenced principal currencies. The index of consumer confidence in the USA has decreased from 94,7 items in May to 94,3 items in June. The forecast assumed decrease to 94 points. The index of consumer expectations has fallen with 84,9 to 83,2, and the index of the current economic conditions has raised from 109,9 to 111,7 points.
Expectations for today:
You already know, on Monday my forecast is always directed against Friday. In Asia euro has updated a minimum. On a market situation at 7:14 Moscow time euro is quoted to dollar on 1,1250. Economic calendar empty. At the American session I expect correctional movement to 1,1245.
The attention of participants of the market was displaced on a meeting of Federal Compulsory Health Insurance Fund (on June 15). The probability of increase of a rate during a June meeting has fallen to 2%. To traders the accompanying statement which can contain hints for terms of the following increase is important.
News of the present day:
- in Great Britain there will be an index of the advancing economic indicators from CB.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1232 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1285, closing – 1,1265.
Fall of euro exchange rate from a maximum 1,1415 has constituted 157 degrees. It is not important support therefore the price can quietly promote to the 180th degree or the D3 line. As today Monday and I always consider movement against Friday, according to the forecast I wait from euro recovery to the 45th degree. This level will in addition become stronger in the evening the balance sheet Lb line which is at the level in the 1,1315 and 112 degree from a maximum 1,1415 now. the 112th and 45th degrees form a price node in a zone 1,1282-1,1285.
Results of the last trading day:
On Friday there was a disappointing report on labor market in the USA. The quantity of new workplaces in the States in nonagricultural sector for May has increased by 38 thousand at the forecast of 160 thousand.
The indicator for April has been reconsidered towards reduction from 160 to 123 thousand. For March value was reconsidered from 208 to 186 thousand (last month it has been reduced from 215 to 208 thousand). The general revision has made minus of 59 thousand.
Level of an involvement of the population into structure of labor has decreased by 0,2%, to 62,6%. Because of him unemployment has decreased to 4,7% (the forecast was 4,9%, the previous value of 5,0%). The index of average hourly earnings in the USA for May has made 0,2% (the forecast was 0,2%, the previous value has been reconsidered from 0,3% for 0,4%).
The rate of euro/dollar at first has grown to 1,1297 on the report on employment, then after an exit of weak ISM in a services sector has accelerated to 1,1373. The ISM index has fallen with 55,7 to 52,9. Strengthening of euro has stopped in a zone of a zashkal about the U3 line (a deviation to 1,618% of the average line with the period 55).
Expectations of the market for today:
After a peyrols I always consider the movement against Friday. At the moment the rate of euro/dollar has returned to the U3 line. Taking into account a temporary factor on kickback, the point of balance is at the level of 1,1285 on the Lb line. My purpose 1,1293.
This day I don't look at news. An exception – speech of the head of the Federal Reserve of the USA J. Yellen. It is very interesting to listen to her that she will tell about пейролс and rates. Traders on Friday put in the prices preservation of monetary policy of FRS in June and July.
The British pound was weakened to all currencies after the publication of poll from Observer/Opinium. According to their data, the number of supporters of an exit of Great Britain from the EU has grown to 43% against 40% which will vote for membership of the country in the EU. Through cross-country of euro/pound the single currency gets support, but all the same corrections not to avoid.
News of the present day:
- in Germany there will be a report on the volume of production orders for April.
- the representative of European Central Bank of E.Navotna will act.
- The eurozone will publish an index of business activity in retail sector for May.
- The eurozone – business confidence index from Sentix for June.
- The USA – an index of conditions of labor market for May.
- The USA – speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Yellen.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1295, at most – 1,1371 (flowing in Asia), closing – 1.1300.
1,1136 euro exchange rate have deviated a minimum up to the U4 line or by 202 degrees. The level of 180 degrees has acted as an intermediate level of resistance. As I have already told above, I ignore all European news today and I expect depreciation of euro to 1,1295. The ending can J. Yellen won't be executed at 19:30 Moscow time because of performance. Dynamics of falling of a course will define future price model. Here or we come back on 1,1215, or we go to submit 1,1470. A lot of things J. Yellen depends on comments.
Results of the last trading day:
On Thursday the rate of euro/dollar was closed by decrease. I will remind that the European Central Bank at a yesterday's meeting left rates on former marks: key interest rate of refinancing at the level of 0,0%, a rate on deposits at the level of-0,40%, and a rate on the credits of European Central Bank at the level of 0,25%. After announcement of the decision of European Central Bank the rate of euro/dollar has grown up on 5 points, to 1,1189 as decisions has coincided with expectations of the market. Focus of attention was displaced on M. Draghi's press conference at once.
On her Mario Draghi has promised to hold interest rates at the current or lower level the long period of time again. The regulator can't cope with inflation. Draghi has hoped that inflation, eventually, will grow to the target level of 2%. After speech of the head of the ECB euro exchange rate has fallen to 1,1145.
Expectations of the market for today:
Today we direct all attention to the report on the American labor market (Non-Farm Payrolls). The report will appear at 15:30 Moscow time. Yesterday's statistical data left quite good:
The number of applications for a dole in the USA has made 267 thousand against the forecast of 270 thousand and 268 thousand week before.
The quantity of new workplaces in the private sector in the USA (ADP) has made 173 thousand in comparison with the forecast of 175 thousand and the previous value of 166 thousand.
I will make the detailed review on Non-Farm Payrolls at 15:00 Moscow time. To an exit of official release for euro correction to the area 1,1165 is expected.
News of the present day:
- the European PMI indexes in a services sector for May (Italy, France, Germany, the eurozone) will be published.
- in Japan there will be a PMI index in a services sector for May.
- Great Britain will publish an index of business activity in sector of services for May.
- the eurozone – the volume of retails for April.
- Canada – balance of trade balance for April, labor productivity in 1 sq. 2016 of the USA – change of an average hourly salary, change of number of workplaces in nonagricultural sector, unemployment rate for May, and also balance of trade balance for April.
- in the USA there will be a PMI index in a services sector for May.
- in the USA there will be an index of business activity for the non-productive sphere from ISM for May.
- The USA – the volume of production orders for April.
In 3,5 days on the hour period the truncated formation was created. Eurobulls have experienced difficulty with advance of the price about the 90th degree in the top part of a formation up. After speech of the head of the ECB Mario Draghi euro exchange rate has punched the lower bound of a figure and has sharply fallen off to level 1,1145. Though the road has been opened for sellers to a mark 1,11, falling was reserved.
From a maximum 1,1220 euro exchange rate have dropped by 67 degrees. This level always acts as good support at reduction of price, or resistance with her growth. The ascending correction has begun with level 1,1141.
In day of a peyrols I always do the forecast till 15:30 Moscow time. NFP indicator which is difficult predicted because of continuous revisions of the previous values therefore it is unknown where will be a course in a minute after the publication of the report on employment. At very weak indicator (below the forecast for 20 thousand) the course can return to a mark 1,1220, at strong – to fall to 1,1088. Price range on NFP has shown on graphics.
Results of the last trading day:
In the run-up to a meeting of European Central Bank euro exchange rate has approached level 1,12. At the American session the price two times came back to level 1,1150 after a statistics exit in the States. However the great demand on euro in cross-countries has allowed eurobulls to win back all suffered losses on news.
Preliminary data of the ISM index have reflected growth in May. The index of business activity in a manufacturing sector of ISM in May has grown to 51,3 in comparison with 50,8 in April and the forecast 50,4.
Buyers got strong support from growing euro/pound cross rate. Results of the last poll have pressured Brekzit for pound. Pair GBP/USD has fallen off to a minimum 1.4385. Judging by sale of pound on all market, participants of the market are afraid of an exit of Great Britain from the EU. I consider that polls manipulate the market and on it earn money.
Expectations of the market for today:
In Asia euro exchange rate in the moment has jumped up to 1,1213. The bull impulse of continuation hasn't received. Now couple is corrected. On Wednesday buyers have overcome two important levels – 1,1156 (the trend line) and 1,1185 (resistance). On graphics breakdowns are allocated with circles. These are bull signals.
Traders wait for results of a meeting of European Central Bank and M. Draghi's performance. He will submit the revised forecasts for economic growth and inflation. Mario Draghi exerts strong impact on a rate of euro/dollar. He is capable to send a course to 400 points up, and down. His speech can, both to increase the deposit, and to nullify. As technical signals are powerless before fundamental, the review without forecast today.
News of the present day:
- Great Britain will publish the PMI index in construction sector for May.
- in the Eurozone there will be a price index of producers for April.
- The European Central Bank will publish the decision on an interest rate.
- The USA – Change of quantity occupied (except for agriculture) according to ADP for May.
- Mario Draghi's press conference will take place, in the USA there will be a report on number of primary applications for a dole on May 23-29.
- the member of FOMC Jerome Powell will act.
- The USA - Change of reserves of oil.
Summit of OPEC.
The rate of euro/dollar has punched two important levels. On graphics breakdowns are allocated. After breakdown of the trend line with assistance of cross-countries of euro I have become stronger to 1,1213. Growth of couple was slowed down at the line of resistance drawn on maxima. Important borders on graphics are allocated with a triangle. On the lower bound support takes place through 1,1189.
Considering euro perekuplennost with pound (bargains at the channel U3 MA line), the probability on cross-country to see the descending correction is high.
During Mario Draghi's performance in the market high volatility is expected. Range of fluctuations in pair EUR/USD can make from 100 to 200 points. On Friday the States will publish the report on employment. Because of external factors on Thursday and Friday risky to trade.
Results of the last trading day:
On Tuesday the day candle was closed pinbary. The cheapening British hasn't allowed eurobulls to be fixed above the trend line. Following the results of the auction her false breakdown has been recorded.
At the American session the rate of euro/dollar has updated a sessional maximum on the American statistics and then after the British has decreased from a maximum 1,1173 to 1,1125.
Pair GBP/USD managed to be shaken two conducted surveys by services ORB and ICM on Brexit. The first has shown that the number of British ready to vote for an exit of Great Britain of the EU has grown to 46%, the number of supporters of the EU makes 51%. The second poll has shown that the number of persons interested to leave the European Union has increased to 45% whereas number of those who has contra decreased to 42%.
With approach of a referendum volatility on pound will increase. What expect us weekly polls at the beginning of new week, it is even difficult to present. Technical signals on pound will poorly work.
The consumer confidence index in the USA for May has made 92,6 (the forecast was 96,4, the previous value is reconsidered with 94,2 to 94,7).
The index of business activity of Association of managers in Chicago in the USA for May has made 49,3 (the forecast was 51,0, the previous value 50,4).
The index of the personal income in the USA remained at the level of 0,4%. The index of personal expenses in the USA has grown to 1,0%.
Expectations of the market for today:
Euro/dollar is trading at the level of 1,1121 against an Asian minimum 1,1114. Waiting for a meeting of European Central Bank on Thursday and the report of NFP on Friday, I expect decrease to 1,1097. Through the "double basis" model from the trend line it is possible to turn into the long ascending correction.
News of the present day:
- Switzerland will publish change of GDP of 1 sq. 2016.
- in Great Britain will present a price index on housing from Nationwide for May.
- in Switzerland there will be a PMI index in a manufacturing sector for May.
- there will be PMI indexes in the industry for May in EU countries.
- in Great Britain there will be an index of business activity in a manufacturing sector for May.
- Canada will publish an index of business activity in the industry from Royal Bank of Canada for May.
- to the States there will be an index of business activity in the industry for May
- The USA – the Index of business activity in the production sphere from ISM May, the volume of expenses on construction for April, a price index for producers from ISM for May.
- The USA – the Release of "The beige book" FRS.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1094, at most – 1,1152, closing – 1,1110.
The rate of euro/dollar in Asia has found support at the level of Gunn 45 degrees – 1,1120. The yesterday's thorn, is on the day schedule – bear pinbar. After him the price often does contraflow lane reversal and only then leaves under a minimum.
In our case at least of a pinbar it is punched, nevertheless, the high probability of return of the price to the trend line because of strengthening of Australian dollar after an exit of positive statistics in Australia remains.
Important day for euro – Thursday. I count that the rate of euro/dollar will decrease to the trend line before speech of the head of the ECB Mario Draghi. At achievement of level 1,1095/97 and a rebound the "double basis" model will begin to be formed.
Results of the last trading day:
On Monday the rate of euro/dollar after achievement of a mark 1,1144 has spent evening in a side trend against low activity because of the day off to the USA. It is time to prepare to traders for a meeting of European Central Bank and M. Draghi's press conference which are planned for Thursday. It is expected that the main rates will remain at the former levels. Also the European Central Bank has to publish forecasts for growth rates of economy and a rate of inflation in the eurozone.
Expectations of the market for today:
The rate of euro/dollar in Asia has grown up to 1,1154. Rally of the British pound promoted increase in prices for gold, oil and other main currencies with dollar. The British The Daily Telegraph newspaper has published survey on Brexit conducted by sociological service ORB. According to poll, the number of British ready to vote for an exit of Great Britain of the EU has grown to 46%, the number of supporters of the EU makes 51%.
Overweight has turned out small, however the pound on these data has grown by 90 points, to 1,4724. Poll is won back, euro/dollar was rolled away to the trend line. On Tuesday I will risk to consider depreciation of euro against US dollar to a mark 1,1115. Today the monthly candle is closed. To buyers not to make of her a bull signal even if they will strongly want it. The purpose for the next two days remains at the level of 1,1085.
News of the present day:
- Germany will publish data on the volume of retails for April.
- in Germany there will be a report on change of number of the unemployed for April.
- The eurozone will submit preliminary data on a consumer price index for May, unemployment rate for April.
- Canada – change of GDP for March and 1 quarter.
- The USA April, expenses/income of consumers for April will publish a consumer price index.
- The USA – an index of business activity in Chicago for May.
- The USA – an index of mood of consumers from The Conference Board for May.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1134 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1175, closing – 1,1162.
The rate of euro/dollar has encountered resistance about the trend line at the level of Gunn 45 degrees – 1,1150. That to fight desire to buy euro off buyers, sellers need to lower as soon as possible a course lower than 1,1127. In this case new participants of the market will join them, and it is possible to fall to 1,1085. I was limited to the level of 1,1116, but here it is necessary to watch dynamics of the British and cross-country of euro/pound. At the general strengthening of dollar, decline of euro will be stronger, than pound. The purpose for the next two days remains at the level of 1,1085. I expect activity at the American session.
Results of the last trading day:
On Friday euro was weakened to the American dollar after speech of the head of the Federal Reserve of the USA J. Yellen. She has hinted at increase of an interest rate in the forthcoming months. According to data of CME Group FedWatch of the future for a rate, probability of her increase in June on Friday I haven't changed and remained at the level of 28%. But in July the probability has grown to 61%. To closing of the auction the rate of euro/dollar has updated a monthly minimum, having fallen to 1,1109. In Asia euro was weakened to 1,1097.
Expectations of the market for today:
In Asia euro was weakened to dollar to 1,1097. In Great Britain and the USA the day off. Economic calendar empty. Traditionally on Monday my forecast against Friday. If on Friday there was an unidirectional impulse, then on Monday I always consider the movement against this movement. If there was флэт, then a shot in the direction of a trend.
On Friday for euro support was found at the level of 1,1130. This level will act as target area. If sellers manage to constrain buyers at this level, so we prepare for the test a mark 1,1080. I recommend to look at a monthly candle. At such bear candle we will quickly return to 1,0830.
News of the present day:
In Great Britain and the USA the day off.
- Germany will submit preliminary data on a consumer price index.
- in Canada there will be a balance of the balance of payments in 1 quarter and a price index to industrial goods for April.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1095, at most – 1,1132, closing – 1,1121.
The rate of euro/dollar has stopped on the 90th degree. Euro likes to be developed from a zone 112-135. It means that the probability of the test of level 1,1084 is high. At present couple is consolidated at the level of 1,11. The last three candles indicate strengthening of euro within correction.
There are no significant news on Monday. In Great Britain and the USA the day off. Because of holidays price fluctuations can appear less than 40 points (the expected scope of a day candle).
If sellers begin to fix profit on short positions and on this background bulls will manage to be fixed higher than 1,1132 then not to avoid recovery of quotations to the 45th degree – 1,1150.
Results of the last trading day:
On Wednesday following the results of the auction the rate of euro/dollar was closed in small plus. For buyers day was heavy as euro was under pressure from cross rates during the day.
In the first half of day of European Central Bank I announced that will begin to buy corporate bonds in June for 5-10 billion euros within a month. The European Central Bank has pressed for euro, however from falling he was constrained by strong indicators of IFO.
Euro has jumped aside up after has updated a minimum against US dollar. To closing of the auction in Europe he bargained in plus. Today in Asia the course has achieved the yesterday's objectives – 1,1185.
The USA has published the PMI index in a services sector from Markit. In May business activity has decreased to 51,2 against the forecast 53,1 and 52,8 in April.
Expectations of the market for today:
In the yesterday's review on euro I have written that I wait for kickback to level 1,1185 with which it is possible to look for sales of euro. Now you shouldn't get up in sales for euro. Gold has risen in price in Asia for 10 dollars. The barrel of Brent costs more than 50 dollars. The British becomes stronger to dollar and isn't going to be corrected. The American dollar becomes cheaper on all market. And on pair EUR/USD on Wednesday the turning model "double basis" was created. At such price model and two-day rally of pound, the rate of euro/dollar can return to level 1,1234 to closing of the European session. The scenario on increase will join when closing an hour candle higher than 1,1190.
News of the present day:
- Great Britain will be published the second preliminary estimate of GDP growth for 1 quarter 2016, preliminary data on business investments of 1 quarter 2016, an index of business activity in sector of services for March.
- the member of FOMC Bullard will act.
- The USA will publish data on orders for durable goods for April, to applications for a dole in a week on May 15-21.
- the assistant to the head of RBA Guy Debell will act.
- in the USA there will be a report on incomplete transactions on sale of housing in April.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1149 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1234, closing – 1,1223.
The rate of euro/dollar has returned to the trend line. I haven't managed to find out what news stand behind morning falling of dollar rate. I want to warn, sell only euro risky when all currencies become stronger to dollar and gold with oil rises in price.
On Thursday I will risk to go against crowd. Euro has stopped on the 45th degree of Gunn. At the auction to Europe I wait for breakdown of the trend line and growth to the 67th degree. If euro receives acceleration from cross-country of euro/pound, then to closing of the auction in Europe I wait for euro on 1,1234. Because of the "double basis" model it is necessary to wait a little with level 1,1080.
Results of the last trading day:
On Tuesday the single currency was weakened to the American dollar to a nine-week minimum after a release of ambiguous data of ZEW and the quarterly inflationary report of Bank of England. On these news the cross rate of euro/pound has failed on 130 points, euro/dollar – on 80 points, to 1,1132.
At the American session euro exchange rate decreased to dollar already against the published favorable data from the USA which have increased probability that FRS will raise interest rates in June. According to the latest data CME Group FedWatch, probability of increase of a rate in June has grown from 26% to 38%.
Sales of new houses in the USA in April have grown by 16,6%, to the level of 619 thousand. Increase by 2,0% was expected. The previous value has been reconsidered from-1,5 to-1,3%.
Expectations of the market for today:
Key event of the environment is the meeting of Bank of Canada. It is expected that the Bank of Canada will leave an interest rate at the level of 0,50%. After a meeting focus of attention of traders will be displaced on Friday speech of the chairman of U.S. Fed J. Yellen.
Late at night there was a report of the American oil institute (API). For the last week reserves of oil of the USA have decreased by-5,137 million barrels (the forecast was-3,3 million, the previous value of-1,14 million).
Despite rally of dollar to many currencies, Brent barrel on Tuesday has risen in price at the American session from $47,78 to $49,22. Growth of oil quotations in Asia has urged on euro to strengthening.
The purpose on the day period – 1,1080. She is about the 135th degree from a maximum 1,1242. Nevertheless, on Wednesday I consider restoration of euro to dollar to the trend line – 1,1185. The explanation is simple. The rate of euro/dollar has fallen to 1,1132 because of sharp falling of cross-country of euro/pound. The unidirectional couples have dispersed in different directions. As the British pound became responsible for a divergence, it is worth expecting the synchronous movement towards the yesterday's movement pound/dollar as it was observed during the period from 12:04 till 03.05.16.
Considering that cross-country of euro/pound is corrected, that strengthening of the British to dollar will be slowed down, and euro – will accelerate. It is worth expecting a rebound from the trend line. If kickback is sharp, then in this case it is necessary to be extremely attentive since fast strengthening of euro will become a signal to the deep ascending correction. If activity of buyers remains low, then it is possible not to be afraid of breakdown of resistance 1,1185.
News of the present day:
- in Switzerland there will be a consumption indicator from UBS for April.
- in the Eurozone there will be an index of consumer climate from Gfk for May.
- Germany will publish an index of business climate from Ifo for May.
- The USA – a price index on housing for March.
- The USA – a preliminary index of business activity in sector of services for May.
- decision of Bank of Canada on an interest rate.
- The USA – reserves of oil and oil products in a week on May 15-21.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1134, at most – 1,1185, closing – 1,1161.
Against the growing oil quotations pressure upon EUR/USD has fallen down. Euro exchange rate in Asia was restored to 1,1157. As I have already told above, a main objective for euro – 1,1080. The zone 1,1110 – 1,1084 is turning on Gunn's levels. On May 19 from a zone 112 – 135 гр. I have begun three-day flat. The similar situation can repeat.
Results of the last trading day:
At the American session the rate of euro/dollar could be restored to 1,1230 after falling to 1,1187 at the beginning of the New York session. The production PMI index has appeared below the forecast, than has helped single currency to become stronger to the American dollar.
The preliminary production PMI index has fallen in May to 50,5 with 50,8 in April (the forecast was 51,0).
Expectations of the market for today:
The last three days the currency pair is trading in a lateral trend between levels 1,1179 and 1,1240. On the day period the road to 1,11 is opened for sellers. They need to pass 1,1180.
Pay attention to one moment. On weak American statistics sellers can't press through euro under 1,12. On May 19 and 23 couple sharply jumped aside up. I connect it with a technical picture on day TF. Day indicators indicate the ascending correction.
The situation is ambiguous therefore it is necessary to wait for a price exit from price range. For today I have allocated range 1,1188 – 1,1222. Since morning I have touched different price models. I have stopped on V-shaped. I didn't begin to do scenarios on break of borders of range on graphics, I have specified only the movement as a percentage and points.
News of the present day:
- in Germany there will be a final gain of GDP beyond 1 quarter 2016.
- Germany and an evorzona will publish indexes of economic moods of ZEW for May.
- Parliamentary hearings concerning inflation in Great Britain. The head of Bank of England Carney's Brands, and also Ben Broadbent, Martin Vail and Gertyan Vlige will act.
- in Great Britain there will be data on the volume of retails from CBI for May.
- report of European Central Bank on financial stability. Mario Draghi can act.
- The USA will present data on sales at primary housing market for April.
- The USA – the Index of business activity in production from FRB-Richmond for May.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1188, at most – 1,1222, closing – 1,1208.
Euro/dollar is trading in a lateral trend. From above buyers are drawn in by the trend line. Buyers try to protect level 1,1180. On Tuesday I have chosen the movement in the range of 1,1188 - 1,1222. Not the fact that the price it will be necessary to bargain between these levels. I consider that day indicators need to unload. It is better to look for sales of euro in a zone 1,1320-1,1350.
