Before a meeting of European Central Bank for euro decrease to 1.1094 is expected "June 1, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Tuesday the day candle was closed pinbary. The cheapening British hasn't allowed eurobulls to be fixed above the trend line. Following the results of the auction her false breakdown has been recorded.

At the American session the rate of euro/dollar has updated a sessional maximum on the American statistics and then after the British has decreased from a maximum 1,1173 to 1,1125.

Pair GBP/USD managed to be shaken two conducted surveys by services ORB and ICM on Brexit. The first has shown that the number of British ready to vote for an exit of Great Britain of the EU has grown to 46%, the number of supporters of the EU makes 51%. The second poll has shown that the number of persons interested to leave the European Union has increased to 45% whereas number of those who has contra decreased to 42%.

With approach of a referendum volatility on pound will increase. What expect us weekly polls at the beginning of new week, it is even difficult to present. Technical signals on pound will poorly work.   

The consumer confidence index in the USA for May has made 92,6 (the forecast was 96,4, the previous value is reconsidered with 94,2 to 94,7).

The index of business activity of Association of managers in Chicago in the USA for May has made 49,3 (the forecast was 51,0, the previous value 50,4).

The index of the personal income in the USA remained at the level of 0,4%. The index of personal expenses in the USA has grown to 1,0%.

Expectations of the market for today:

Euro/dollar is trading at the level of 1,1121 against an Asian minimum 1,1114. Waiting for a meeting of European Central Bank on Thursday and the report of NFP on Friday, I expect decrease to 1,1097. Through the "double basis" model from the trend line it is possible to turn into the long ascending correction.

News of the present day:      

    - Switzerland will publish change of GDP of 1 sq. 2016.     
    - in Great Britain will present a price index on housing from Nationwide for May.
    - in Switzerland there will be a PMI index in a manufacturing sector for May.
    - there will be PMI indexes in the industry for May in EU countries.
    - in Great Britain there will be an index of business activity in a manufacturing sector for May.   
    - Canada will publish an index of business activity in the industry from Royal Bank of Canada for May.       
    - to the States there will be an index of business activity in the industry for May    
    - The USA – the Index of business activity in the production sphere from ISM May, the volume of expenses on construction for April, a price index for producers from ISM for May.          
    - The USA – the Release of "The beige book" FRS.

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1094, at most – 1,1152, closing – 1,1110.

The rate of euro/dollar in Asia has found support at the level of Gunn 45 degrees – 1,1120. The yesterday's thorn, is on the day schedule – bear pinbar. After him the price often does contraflow lane reversal and only then leaves under a minimum.

In our case at least of a pinbar it is punched, nevertheless, the high probability of return of the price to the trend line because of strengthening of Australian dollar after an exit of positive statistics in Australia remains.


Important day for euro – Thursday. I count that the rate of euro/dollar will decrease to the trend line before speech of the head of the ECB Mario Draghi. At achievement of level 1,1095/97 and a rebound the "double basis" model will begin to be formed.