Euro is corrected before NFP "June 3, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Thursday the rate of euro/dollar was closed by decrease. I will remind that the European Central Bank at a yesterday's meeting left rates on former marks: key interest rate of refinancing at the level of 0,0%, a rate on deposits at the level of-0,40%, and a rate on the credits of European Central Bank at the level of 0,25%. After announcement of the decision of European Central Bank the rate of euro/dollar has grown up on 5 points, to 1,1189 as decisions has coincided with expectations of the market. Focus of attention was displaced on M. Draghi's press conference at once.

On her Mario Draghi has promised to hold interest rates at the current or lower level the long period of time again. The regulator can't cope with inflation. Draghi has hoped that inflation, eventually, will grow to the target level of 2%. After speech of the head of the ECB euro exchange rate has fallen to 1,1145.

Expectations of the market for today:

Today we direct all attention to the report on the American labor market (Non-Farm Payrolls). The report will appear at 15:30 Moscow time. Yesterday's statistical data left quite good:

The number of applications for a dole in the USA has made 267 thousand against the forecast of 270 thousand and 268 thousand week before.

The quantity of new workplaces in the private sector in the USA (ADP) has made 173 thousand in comparison with the forecast of 175 thousand and the previous value of 166 thousand.

I will make the detailed review on Non-Farm Payrolls at 15:00 Moscow time. To an exit of official release for euro correction to the area 1,1165 is expected.

News of the present day:      

    - the European PMI indexes in a services sector for May (Italy, France, Germany, the eurozone) will be published.           
    - in Japan there will be a PMI index in a services sector for May.
    - Great Britain will publish an index of business activity in sector of services for May.           
    - the eurozone – the volume of retails for April.
    - Canada – balance of trade balance for April, labor productivity in 1 sq. 2016 of the USA – change of an average hourly salary, change of number of workplaces in nonagricultural sector, unemployment rate for May, and also balance of trade balance for April.
    - in the USA there will be a PMI index in a services sector for May.
    - in the USA there will be an index of business activity for the non-productive sphere from ISM for May.
    - The USA – the volume of production orders for April.

In 3,5 days on the hour period the truncated formation was created. Eurobulls have experienced difficulty with advance of the price about the 90th degree in the top part of a formation up. After speech of the head of the ECB Mario Draghi euro exchange rate has punched the lower bound of a figure and has sharply fallen off to level 1,1145. Though the road has been opened for sellers to a mark 1,11, falling was reserved.

From a maximum 1,1220 euro exchange rate have dropped by 67 degrees. This level always acts as good support at reduction of price, or resistance with her growth. The ascending correction has begun with level 1,1141.


In day of a peyrols I always do the forecast till 15:30 Moscow time. NFP indicator which is difficult predicted because of continuous revisions of the previous values therefore it is unknown where will be a course in a minute after the publication of the report on employment. At very weak indicator (below the forecast for 20 thousand) the course can return to a mark 1,1220, at strong – to fall to 1,1088. Price range on NFP has shown on graphics.