Monday against Friday "June 6, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Friday there was a disappointing report on labor market in the USA. The quantity of new workplaces in the States in nonagricultural sector for May has increased by 38 thousand at the forecast of 160 thousand.

The indicator for April has been reconsidered towards reduction from 160 to 123 thousand. For March value was reconsidered from 208 to 186 thousand (last month it has been reduced from 215 to 208 thousand). The general revision has made minus of 59 thousand.

Level of an involvement of the population into structure of labor has decreased by 0,2%, to 62,6%. Because of him unemployment has decreased to 4,7% (the forecast was 4,9%, the previous value of 5,0%). The index of average hourly earnings in the USA for May has made 0,2% (the forecast was 0,2%, the previous value has been reconsidered from 0,3% for 0,4%).

The rate of euro/dollar at first has grown to 1,1297 on the report on employment, then after an exit of weak ISM in a services sector has accelerated to 1,1373. The ISM index has fallen with 55,7 to 52,9. Strengthening of euro has stopped in a zone of a zashkal about the U3 line (a deviation to 1,618% of the average line with the period 55).

Expectations of the market for today:

After a peyrols I always consider the movement against Friday. At the moment the rate of euro/dollar has returned to the U3 line. Taking into account a temporary factor on kickback, the point of balance is at the level of 1,1285 on the Lb line. My purpose 1,1293.

This day I don't look at news. An exception – speech of the head of the Federal Reserve of the USA J. Yellen. It is very interesting to listen to her that she will tell about пейролс and rates. Traders on Friday put in the prices preservation of monetary policy of FRS in June and July.

The British pound was weakened to all currencies after the publication of poll from Observer/Opinium. According to their data, the number of supporters of an exit of Great Britain from the EU has grown to 43% against 40% which will vote for membership of the country in the EU. Through cross-country of euro/pound the single currency gets support, but all the same corrections not to avoid.

News of the present day:      

   - in Germany there will be a report on the volume of production orders for April.
    - the representative of European Central Bank of E.Navotna will act.     
    - The eurozone will publish an index of business activity in retail sector for May.   
    - The eurozone – business confidence index from Sentix for June.
    - The USA – an index of conditions of labor market for May.           
    - The USA – speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Yellen.     

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1295, at most – 1,1371 (flowing in Asia), closing – 1.1300.

1,1136 euro exchange rate have deviated a minimum up to the U4 line or by 202 degrees. The level of 180 degrees has acted as an intermediate level of resistance. As I have already told above, I ignore all European news today and I expect depreciation of euro to 1,1295. The ending can J. Yellen won't be executed at 19:30 Moscow time because of performance. Dynamics of falling of a course will define future price model. Here or we come back on 1,1215, or we go to submit 1,1470. A lot of things J. Yellen depends on comments.