Participants of the market have reconciled to an exit of Britain from the EU "June 15, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

Following the results of the yesterday's biddings of euro/dollar it was closed by decrease on 83 points at the level of 1,1206. The common currency has got under pressure after fall of profitability of 10-year bonds in Germany below a zero mark. At present it constitutes-0,001% against-0,027% in case of the maximum fall.

At the American session euro and pound have updated the minima against dollar after release of new polls which have shown increase in supporters of "Brekzit".

Yesterday polls of TNS and YouGov have been published. According to TNS: 47% of British are ready to vote for an exit from the EU, 40% - to remain in the EU, 13% - were not determined with the choice. 2497 people have taken part in online poll. According to YouGov: 46%-is wanted to be left, 39% - to remain, 15% - were not determined.

Polls have reflected increase in supporters of an exit of Britain from the EU in comparison with the previous values, and the British on them was slightly weakened to US dollar and euro. To a campaign the market has reached a boiling point. Participants of the market have reconciled to an exit of Britain from the EU and have switched to a meeting of FRS.

Expectations for today:

On Tuesday two-day committee meeting of the public market of U.S. Fed has begun. Its results will be known at 21:00 Moscow time. It is expected that rates will be left without change. After a meeting the press conference of the chairman of FRS J. Yellen will take place and forecasts are published.

If profitability on the German 10 summer bonds leaves in a positive zone, then euro/dollar will move to 1,1240 up (the trend line). After performance J. Yellen it is unknown where euro will be closed.

News of the present day:

    - in Great Britain there will be an index of change of an average salary, an index of change of an average salary for April, change of number of jobless claims May
    - the eurozone will publish trading balance taking into account seasonal fluctuations for April.
    - Canada – scope change of sales at producers for April. The USA – a price index of producers for May, a production index according to FRB of New York June.
    - in the USA – scope change of industrial production for May.
    - The USA – Change of inventories of oil on June 6-12-3,2 million barrels
    - The USA – the Solution of FOMC at the rate, the economic forecast and statements of FOMC.
    - The USA – a press conference of the head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen.
    - The USA – net volume of purchases of long-term securities for April.

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast till 21:00 Moscow time: at least – 1,1189 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1236.

Against decline in yield of 10 summer bonds in Germany euro has flown by the 45 and 67 degree. Sellers have won back more than 70% which they have incurred on June 3 on weak data on the labor market in the USA.

As I have already told above, participants of the market adapted to negative polls to Brekzit. And it means, internally they are ready to purchases of euro. If British vote for an exit from the EU, process of an exit very long and will take not one year. To traders process to a referendum, but not is important later.

On hour indicators CCI and stochastics were created bull divergence therefore according to the forecast I consider strengthening of euro, but not easing. Also I have taken the shown "double basis" model into account. So to say, for correction conditions are satisfied. It was necessary to pass 1,1220.


I do not know as the market will react to performance Yellen. If pressure upon euro amplifies, then euro will move to level 1,1144. Below this level there passes the trend line (it is carried out through minima 1,0516 and 1,0821).