For euro breakdown of the trend line is expected "May 26, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Wednesday following the results of the auction the rate of euro/dollar was closed in small plus. For buyers day was heavy as euro was under pressure from cross rates during the day.

In the first half of day of European Central Bank I announced that will begin to buy corporate bonds in June for 5-10 billion euros within a month. The European Central Bank has pressed for euro, however from falling he was constrained by strong indicators of IFO.

Euro has jumped aside up after has updated a minimum against US dollar. To closing of the auction in Europe he bargained in plus. Today in Asia the course has achieved the yesterday's objectives – 1,1185.  

The USA has published the PMI index in a services sector from Markit. In May business activity has decreased to 51,2 against the forecast 53,1 and 52,8 in April.

Expectations of the market for today:

In the yesterday's review on euro I have written that I wait for kickback to level 1,1185 with which it is possible to look for sales of euro. Now you shouldn't get up in sales for euro. Gold has risen in price in Asia for 10 dollars. The barrel of Brent costs more than 50 dollars. The British becomes stronger to dollar and isn't going to be corrected. The American dollar becomes cheaper on all market. And on pair EUR/USD on Wednesday the turning model "double basis" was created. At such price model and two-day rally of pound, the rate of euro/dollar can return to level 1,1234 to closing of the European session. The scenario on increase will join when closing an hour candle higher than 1,1190.

News of the present day:              

    - Great Britain will be published the second preliminary estimate of GDP growth for 1 quarter 2016, preliminary data on business investments of 1 quarter 2016, an index of business activity in sector of services for March.         
    - the member of FOMC Bullard will act.
    - The USA will publish data on orders for durable goods for April, to applications for a dole in a week on May 15-21.
    - the assistant to the head of RBA Guy Debell will act.       
    - in the USA there will be a report on incomplete transactions on sale of housing in April.

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1149 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1234, closing – 1,1223.

The rate of euro/dollar has returned to the trend line. I haven't managed to find out what news stand behind morning falling of dollar rate. I want to warn, sell only euro risky when all currencies become stronger to dollar and gold with oil rises in price.


On Thursday I will risk to go against crowd. Euro has stopped on the 45th degree of Gunn. At the auction to Europe I wait for breakdown of the trend line and growth to the 67th degree. If euro receives acceleration from cross-country of euro/pound, then to closing of the auction in Europe I wait for euro on 1,1234. Because of the "double basis" model it is necessary to wait a little with level 1,1080.