Thursday, May 12, 2016

Euro has beaten off the day trend line "May 12, 2016"



Results of the last trading day:

On Wednesday the rate of euro/dollar was restored with 1,1370 to 1,1446. For all day of eurobulls I supported by the growth euro/pound cross rate. The British was weakened against single currency after a release of data on industrial production and manufacturing industry of Great Britain.

At the American session the dollar was weakened after a release of the report of the Ministry of Energy of the USA on oil reserves. In a week from April 30 to May 6 reserves of crude oil have dropped by 3,4 million barrels, to 540 million barrels. Their increase by 0,5 million barrels was expected. Oil production has decreased from 8,825 to 8,802 million barrels.

On news oil has risen in price for 5,5% to 47,70. Together with her and euro. In fact there were no fundamental reasons for strengthening of euro. But the technical signal – a release from the day trend line has worked.

Expectations of the market for today:

On day TF the rate of euro/dollar has jumped aside from the trend line. While the price is below a mark 1,1494, I will wait for realization of a week signal on a pinbara. Today without forecast. I think, Thursday sign day for euro. The Bank of England will publish the decision on monetary policy. Cross-country of euro/pound on Wednesday increased, today can decrease. It is unknown that else M. Carney will tell. If following the results of day demand for euro decreases, then on Friday will consider depreciation of euro to dollar to level 1,13 again.

News of the present day:              

    - the Eurozone will publish data on industrial production for March.     
    - in Great Britain will leave: report on inflation of Bank of England, decision and results of vote on an interest rate, volume of the program of purchase of assets.
    - the head of Bank of England Mark Carney will act.                      
    - in Canada there will be a price index in primary housing market for March. In the USA data on labor market and the prices of import.
    - the member of FOMC Rozengren will act.
    - the member of FOMC George will act.                

Technical analysis:

The yesterday's forecast was fulfilled specularly. The rate of euro/dollar has risen to the upper bound of the canal which has been built on three values – 1,1385-1,1358 and 1,1479. At 7:18 Moscow time couple bargains on 1,1424. On week and day TF the situation has slightly changed after yesterday. Gold and the Australian/dollar decrease. Euro derives strength from cross-countries at present – the euro/Australian and euro/yen. If on later performances of M. Carney the pound is weakened, then euro/dollar will return to level 1,1385. If isn't present, then eurobulls will begin to be going to pass level 1,1480.

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