Results of the last trading day:
After Brexit the rate of euro/dollar has decreased on five figures (-4,51%) to 1,0911. As soon as results of vote have been officially announced, in the foreign exchange market the correctional phase has begun.
Referendum in the past. The peak of volatility is passed, now expects us long flat. Kickback has constituted 277 points. For a start it is quite good. Now the price needs to return to the balance sheet lb line which passes through 1,1208.
Expectations for today:
Today it's Monday. This day I always consider movement against Friday. If on Friday euro was weakened, so today from couple I wait for growth. As intra day volatility in the market remains high, according to the forecast I wait for kickback to 1,1115. In the moment jump to 1,1154 is possible.
The head of the government of Scotland Nikola Sterdzhen during week-end I have declared that the country intends to veto results of Brexit. The country does not agree with an exit of Great Britain from the European Union. The kickback is stronger, the probability is less that Britain will leave the EU. The referendum has no legal force. It is the form of direct declaration of will of citizens which is expressed in vote. Especially overweight was insignificant.
News of the present day:
- The USA – Balance of foreign trade in goods for May.
- USA-preliminary data on the PMI index in service trade for June.
– Speech of the president of European Central Bank Mario Draghi.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,0982, at most – 1,1118, closing – 1,1065.
The rate of euro/dollar bargains in a zone of a zashkal, D4 line MA is lower. On Monday important macrodata it isn't planned therefore according to the forecast I wait for the correctional movement to the 112th degree. At 20:30 Moscow time M. Draghi acts. It is interesting to listen to him that he thinks of vote and what actions from the Central Bank in the current situation will follow.
Results of the last trading day:
Expectations on yesterday were completely met. The rate of euro/dollar was recovered from a minimum 1,1236 to 1,1337 (the purpose was 1,1316). Euro/dollar and pound/dollar raised, there were no survey results yet from Opinium which has shown growth of supporters of "Brekzit". On it euro/dollar was filled up with 1,1337 on 1,1269. After the publication of results of new polls, the rate of euro/dollar has shifted a maximum on 1,1349.
Expectations for today:
Today all attention to a referendum in Great Britain. Contradictory polls on "Brekzit" since May do not allow to trade normally (I speak not about intra day trade). Tomorrow after promulgation of results of vote it will fade into the background. The economy of the USA and a rate of FRS will come under the spotlight again.
Vote concerning membership of the country in the EU will be extended till 00:00 Moscow time. In day of a referendum there is no desire to do the forecast. I will allocate only the price range 1,1294 - 1,1375 in which I expect fluctuation of euro before announcement of preliminary results.
News of the present day:
– a referendum in Great Britain. Vote concerning membership of the country in the EU will be extended till 00:00 Moscow time.
- there will be European indexes of business activity in occupational sectors and service sectors of France, Germany and the Eurozone.
– Number of requirements of an unemployment benefit in a week on June 12-18.
– Preliminary index of business activity in production for June.
– Sales in the primary market of housing for May.
– An index of leading indicators from SV for May.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1236, at most – 1,1316, closing – 1,1296.
Eurobulls without efforts have returned a course to level 1,1337, there was no poll from Opinium yet. Now euro is quoted to dollar on 1,1343. Growth was slowed down about the 67th degree. Because of a referendum in Great Britain I don't do the forecast. On hours the road is free to 1,1368/75. As support I allocate level 1,1294.
Results of the last trading day:
Expectations on yesterday were completely met. The rate of euro/dollar was recovered from a minimum 1,1236 to 1,1337 (the purpose was 1,1316). Euro/dollar and pound/dollar raised, there were no survey results yet from Opinium which has shown growth of supporters of "Brekzit". On it euro/dollar was filled up with 1,1337 on 1,1269. After the publication of results of new polls, the rate of euro/dollar has shifted a maximum on 1,1349.
Expectations for today:
Today all attention to a referendum in Great Britain. Contradictory polls on "Brekzit" since May do not allow to trade normally (I speak not about intra day trade). Tomorrow after promulgation of results of vote it will fade into the background. The economy of the USA and a rate of FRS will come under the spotlight again.
Vote concerning membership of the country in the EU will be extended till 00:00 Moscow time. In day of a referendum there is no desire to do the forecast. I will allocate only the price range 1,1294 - 1,1375 in which I expect fluctuation of euro before announcement of preliminary results.
News of the present day:
– a referendum in Great Britain. Vote concerning membership of the country in the EU will be extended till 00:00 Moscow time.
- there will be European indexes of business activity in occupational sectors and service sectors of France, Germany and the Eurozone.
– Number of requirements of an unemployment benefit in a week on June 12-18.
– Preliminary index of business activity in production for June.
– Sales in the primary market of housing for May.
– An index of leading indicators from SV for May.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1236, at most – 1,1316, closing – 1,1296.
Eurobulls without efforts have returned a course to level 1,1337, there was no poll from Opinium yet. Now euro is quoted to dollar on 1,1343. Growth was slowed down about the 67th degree. Because of a referendum in Great Britain I don't do the forecast. On hours the road is free to 1,1368/75. As support I allocate level 1,1294.
Results of the last trading day:
On Tuesday euro was closed in minus. After breakdown of support in the area 1,1330, the rate has decreased to 1,1302. From it the rebound was expected. Before speech of the head of the ECB M. Draghi sellers have driven away buyers to 1,1285. Closing the sentry of a candle is lower 1,13 has cancelled the scenario on strengthening of euro.
Draghi has expressed concern about low inflation in the performance and has hinted at readiness of the Central Bank to take new measures of stimulation. Euro exchange rate has reacted with decrease to 1,1239 to such statements.
Expectations for today:
In Asia euro has updated a sessional minimum and is so far traded in a green zone. The rate constitutes 1,1266. European calendar empty. High volatility in the market will remain before the end of the week. The fact that the referendum in Great Britain will take place on Thursday, but not on the weekend pleases. It will help to avoid big gaps.
In recent days speculators have shaken the market on polls on Brexit therefore to closing of the European session I expect recovery of euro exchange rate to level 1,1316. Now we will consider a technical picture why I have taken this level.
News of the present day:
- Canada will publish an index of retail sales for April.
- The eurozone – the Index of consumer confidence for June.
– Speech of the head of the Federal Reserve J. Yellen, secondary market sales of housing for June.
- The USA – Inventories of oil and oil products in a week on June 12-18.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1236, at most – 1,1316, closing – 1,1296.
I said more than once that on pair EUR/USD the turning zone is between the 112th and 135th degrees. On the 112th degree of Gunn the final triangle was created. Their exit it was up. So far the price was recovered to 1,1265.
As an economic calendar empty, at the biddings in Europe I consider strengthening of euro to dollar to the 45th degree – 1,1289. If recovery goes according to the plan, then to closing of the European session I wait for return of the price to the trend line – 1,1316. This level is strengthened by the 67th degree, and also by the evening there will be a balance sheet Lb line there (the average line with the period 55). The scenario on growth will be cancelled when closing an hour candle lower than 1,1236.
Results of the last trading day:
On Monday euro exchange rate was closed by growth in relation to Friday closing and decrease to the level of opening of the market in Asia. At Asian session the common currency has become stronger against the American dollar to 1,1382. The dollar was weakened on decrease in fears of Brekzit. The last polls have reflected growth of number of opponents of an exit of Great Britain from the EU.
On good polls a rate the pound/dollar has grown by 371 points, to 1,4717. Euro/dollar after morning rally has returned to level 1,1300. Depreciation of euro has been caused by fall of a rate of euro/pound.
Expectations for today:
From important events of today: two-day performance J. Yellen with the semi-annual report before the Congress of the USA (on June 21-22). In the Congress she will speak about state of the economy and monetary policy. Investors will wait from it for a hint for the term of increase of a rate by the Federal Reserve. Its task not to irritate the markets in a referendum threshold in Great Britain which will take place on Thursday. As on Monday euro was corrected against US dollar following the results of day from it strengthening to 1,1359 is expected.
News of the present day:
- Great Britain – amount of crediting of a public sector for May.
- Germany – an index of economic moods of ZEW for June.
- Great Britain – industrial orders from CBI for June.
– speech of the head of the ECB M. Draghi.
– speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Yellen.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1303, at most – 1,1383, closing – 1,1359.
In case of decrease euro exchange rate stopped on the 45th and 67th degree. The hour indicator of the joint-stock company has unloaded. It was necessary to the oscillator of stochastics to return to a zone of purchases and it is possible to begin a new growth phase.
Now the rate is at the level of 1,1330. If on minima to draw a line, we will get support. I think, it will not resist and the rate will decrease to 1,1303. From it I wait for strengthening of European currency to 1,1383. Here I put on soft tone J. Yellen more. Performance is planned at 17:00 Moscow time. Depreciation of euro to level 1,1276 will cancel my scenario on growth. On day TF it was created pinbar. I do not consider it yet as the pound is not weakened.
Results of the last trading day:
On Friday the rate of euro/dollar was during the day traded around level 1,1262. At Asian session buyers have made an attempt to be fixed above the trend line. Attempt was not crowned with success. The price has returned from level 1,1296 to 1,1245. Participants of the market did not take active actions in anticipation of days off.
Expectations for today:
The biddings on Monday in the foreign exchange market have opened decrease on dollar. The gap has constituted 53 points. The current quotation 1,1375 against Friday closing 1,1273. It was reaction to new polls to Brexit. According to the data BMG for Herald wishing "to remain" in the EU has constituted 53,3%, "to leave" - 46,7%. 1064 adults have taken part from June 10 to June 15 in poll.
The price has reached the upper bound of MA of the channel. It is the strong level of resistance. As today Monday, according to the forecast I consider movement against Asia. I allow increase of a rate to 1,1391, later I expect to see return to a mark 1,1338.
Till Thursday the market on couples with euro and pound will be thin. Brokers have raised marginal requirements in communication by the forthcoming referendum in Great Britain. High volatility will remain before the end of the week.
News of the present day:
- in Germany will publish a price index of producers for May.
- Speech of the head of bank of Japan Kuroda.
- there will be a monthly report of the Central Bank of Germany.
- Canada – Wholesales April.
- Australia – the Index of leading indicators from SV for April.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1308, at most – 1,1391, closing – 1,1342.
The rate of euro/dollar has punched the trend line. From the level of 135 degrees of euro I have become stronger to the 202nd. Growth of couple is contained at present by the U3 line. It is in 1% of the balance sheet Lb line (the average line with the period 55).
After a morning gap it was activated week pinbar. Read ideas for euro here. As on Friday euro was flat, today it is worth expecting or the unidirectional movement up at all three sessions, or model a lodge. I incline to the second more. Growth to 1,1391 and decline in the rate to 1,1338. On graphics at me the two 45th degree. The first level is calculated from the current maximum, the second – from the predicted level 1,1391.
Results of the last trading day:
On Thursday the rate of euro/dollar has fallen to 1,1130 after the British pound. To closing of day buyers have won back about 70% of losses. The price has returned to level 1,1251. Couple was sharply developed on news about murder of the member of the British parliament Joe Cox. Armed attack has been committed against it during a meeting with voters.
Due to the tragic event the head of Bank of England has cancelled yesterday's performance. In the market directly there were "rumors" that the referendum can be cancelled or postponed for other number. To dollar all currencies have become stronger.
Expectations for today:
On Thursday the rate of euro/dollar has beaten off the trend line. I hope that the murderer did not know the technical analysis and as its actions will be reflected in currency rates. Nevertheless, it has changed moods of those who bought the American dollar.
As a result the other day it was created turning pinbar (a candle with a long lower shadow). That it was activated, it is necessary to be fixed higher than the level 1,1294. According to intra day schedules break is impossible to me today. Economic calendar empty. For Friday the scenario with lateral motion under the trend line (H1.1415-H1.1294) in the range 1,1235-1,1280 approaches more.
News of the present day:
- The eurozone will publish the paying balance taking into account seasonal fluctuations April.
- in Canada there will be a consumer price index for May. The USA – number of the issued construction licenses, laying of new houses for May.
- The eurozone – Speech of the president of European Central Bank Mario Draghi.
- Baker Hughes – number of the working drilling rigs.
- Canada – Speech of the deputy of upravlyayueshchy Bank of Canada Caroline Wilkins.
Technical analysis:
Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1235, at most – 1,1280, closing – 1,1252.
The rate of euro/dollar decreased to a cross hairs of two lines: the first line has been drawn through minima the 1,1232-1,1188, second – through 1,0516-1,0821. Additional strengthening to a zone 1,1130 - 1,1140 was given by the 135th degree.
So far "eurobulls" have won back 80% of losses of yesterday's fall to level 1,1130. The price has returned to the bear trend line. From a minimum growth of couple has constituted 112 degrees.
Considering that on Friday a calendar empty, I consider fluctuations of euro under the trend line. I incline to opinion that the final triangle will be created. I do not take M. Draghi into account as it exerts strong impact on the market only during a press conference after a meeting of European Central Bank.
Despite a day pinbar hardly anyone will want to be bought aggressively by euro before output and forthcoming new polls for "Brekzit". The strong zone of resistance is formed by levels 1,1295-1,13. This that area to which the course without news after breakdown of the trend line is possible.
