Short-term trade idea of FX AUDUSD – short selling: development of idea of April 4 "April 25, 2016"

Trade opportunities on currency pair: on the week schedule it was created пинбар with the top shadow of 130 points. It is bad that a body bull. The probability of kickback is high. Consider sales from 0,7760 with the purpose 0,7535. If the trend line is punched then it is possible to establish the purpose in the area 0,7430. Don't sell the Australian at the rising in price oil. The scenario on decrease will be cancelled when closing a week candle higher than 0,7834.

Background

The last idea on Australian dollar left on April 4. At the time of her publication the Australian was quoted to the American on 0,7672. The course AUD/USD at working off of the "double basis" model has met resistance. In this regard it was offered to take a waiting attitude and to wait for formation of a turning candle formation in a zone 0,7722-0,7845 – bear absorption or пинбар.

This week it was created пинбар with a maximum 0,7834 and at the cost of closing 0,7704. The Australian has updated a maximum against growth of oil quotations. On Thursday after M. Draghi's performance and strengthening of US dollar the Australian has handed over positions too. 

Current situation

Though the week candle was closed by a bull body, the top shadow in 130 points has enough to sell Australian dollar with the purpose 0,7384. For a start it is necessary to be closed lower than 0,7630. At once it isn't necessary to sell AUD since often before falling the price does contraflow lane reversal that buyers could leave long positions on the good price. Sales on kickback can be considered from 0,7760. Don't sell the Australian at the rising in price oil.

On April 27 FRS will announce the decision on an interest rate. Nobody expects from the Central Bank of increase of rates. Therefore if the Australian in the first two days isn't able to become stronger to dollar, then will hardly return to 0,7834. So far it is possible to consider falling of the Australian currency to 0,7535. If the trend line is punched then it is possible to establish the purpose in the area 0,7430.