Trade opportunities on currency pair: On week TF the price has returned to support 0,7790. If to take "head shoulders" for the main scenario, then it is possible to consider at first falling to 0,7651, I will jam after kickback – to 0,7389 to the middle of July. On AC and CCI indicators bear divergence was created. Pressure upon euro will remain within several weeks.
Background
The last idea for couple of euro/pound was published on April 4, 2016. At the time of her publication euro was trading on 0,8019. From the monthly trend line (from a zone 0,8065-0,81) change of a bull phase on bear was expected. Level 0,78 acted as the purpose. Upon a rate of euro/pound it was developed from level 0,8116. For the last two weeks of euro it was weakened to the British for 4,05% to level 0,7780.
The maximum has been reached on April 7 against depreciation of the American dollar after the publication of the protocol of a March meeting of FOMC and the report from the Ministry of Energy of the USA. The minutes of FOMC have shown that heads of FRS don't see a possibility of increase of an interest rate in April. Oil has risen in price on reduction of oil production in the States.
In the evening at the auction in New York the single currency was weakened to the American dollar and the British after the publication of the protocol of a March meeting of European Central Bank which has indicated tendency of the regulator to further mitigation of monetary policy. The pound felt confident before a meeting of Bank of England.
On Monday, April 11, cross-country of euro/pound has fallen to 90 points, to 0,8045. No news stood behind strengthening of pound. Dealers say that demand for sterling has been caused by execution of one large warrant. From this day in cross-country on the hour period the descending trend has begun.
On April 13 the single currency was weakened to dollar and pound on growth of tendency to risk after an exit of the Chinese statistics on trade balance and weak data on industrial production in the eurozone. Indicators of industrial production were reduced stronger than forecasts. Data on export of China have caused rally of share indexes. Cross-couple of euro/pound I have fallen to 50 points, to 0,7924.
On April 18 after a failure of negotiations in Doha on oil production freezing the rate of euro/pound tried to be restored. It lasted not for long. At the American session the new wave of depreciation of euro against the British pound waiting for a meeting of European Central Bank has begun.
Following the results of a meeting of European Central Bank I left three rates at the former levels. The key interest rate of refinancing remained at the level of 0,0%, a rate on deposits – minus 0,40%, a rate on the credits of European Central Bank – 0,25%. The volume of the program of purchase of assets is kept at the level of 80 billion euros a month. Tone of performance of M. Draghi was "pigeon". The head of the Central Bank has expressed fears concerning an exit of Britain from the EU, and also return of consumer prices to a deflation zone. He has told that rates will remain low during the long period of time even after end of QE.
Current situation
Euro is weakened to pound two weeks in a row. On week TF the price has returned to support 0,7790. Pay attention to how at sharp decline in the rate the head shoulders model has begun to be shown. If to take "head shoulders" for the main scenario, then on the way to eurobears several levels will meet. The line of a neck passes through 0,7651. The first level about which a situation for euro can worsen. In this case the price without stops will reach to 0,7575/80.
If the course jumps aside from 0,7651, then it is worth adhering to the route applied on the schedule. On AC and CCI indicators bear divergence was created. Ideal working off of model, this depreciation of euro to 0,7389 to the middle of July.
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