Monday, April 25, 2016

Euro was stabilized at the balance line "April 26, 2016"


Results of the last trading day:

On Monday the rate of euro/dollar was restored to the level 1,1279 (the 45th degree) against the general depreciation of US dollar. Euro has become stronger to US dollar, despite his easing against the British pound. The pound was in demand as according to the last polls, the probability of an exit of Great Britain from the EU has fallen lower than 30%.

At the American session there was a weak statistics on housing market in the USA. In March sales of houses in primary market of the USA have decreased by 1,5% (the forecast was 1,0%, the previous value is reconsidered from 2,0% to-0,4%).

Expectations of the market for today:

The rate of euro/dollar bargains twelve hours in the narrow range about the balance lb line. Flowing flat on a hand to buyers, as if cross-country of euro/pound begins to be corrected after yesterday's falling, then euro will become stronger to dollar. As on pair GBP/USD the ascending movement dies away, in the moment euro exchange rate is capable to reach a point 1,13. I consider such scenario according to the forecast.

The attention of participants of the market is directed to results of a two-day meeting of Committee of the open market of U.S. Fed. His results will become known on Wednesday. Change of rates isn't expected. Him (traders) the assessment of FRS of a condition of world economy and further plans for change of monetary policy is important.

News of the present day:

   - Great Britain will publish data on number of the approved mortgage loans from VVA for March.  
   - in the USA there will be a report on orders for durable goods for March.
   - the speech will be made by the head of Bank of Canada of the Runner.           
   - the Price index on housing from S&P/CS for February (a weak indicator)          
   - the Preliminary index of business activity in sector of services for April.
   - the Index of consumer confidence for April.         
   - the Index of business activity in production from FRB-Richmond for April.
   - speech of the board member of Bank of England J. Kanliff.
   - the report on week stocks in the USA from API.

Technical analysis:

I don't want that euro raised higher than 1,1279. In this case under the threat of working off it will turn out day pin bar for April 21. Sellers need to close day lower than 1,1268. According to the forecast I wait intra day/\-figurative model. The closing is lower, the sellers will be stronger. When closing euro higher than 1,1305, about depreciation of euro and pin bar it will be possible to forget.

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