Euro has beaten off the trend line "May 31, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Monday the rate of euro/dollar after achievement of a mark 1,1144 has spent evening in a side trend against low activity because of the day off to the USA. It is time to prepare to traders for a meeting of European Central Bank and M. Draghi's press conference which are planned for Thursday. It is expected that the main rates will remain at the former levels. Also the European Central Bank has to publish forecasts for growth rates of economy and a rate of inflation in the eurozone.

Expectations of the market for today:

The rate of euro/dollar in Asia has grown up to 1,1154. Rally of the British pound promoted increase in prices for gold, oil and other main currencies with dollar. The British The Daily Telegraph newspaper has published survey on Brexit conducted by sociological service ORB. According to poll, the number of British ready to vote for an exit of Great Britain of the EU has grown to 46%, the number of supporters of the EU makes 51%.

Overweight has turned out small, however the pound on these data has grown by 90 points, to 1,4724. Poll is won back, euro/dollar was rolled away to the trend line. On Tuesday I will risk to consider depreciation of euro against US dollar to a mark 1,1115. Today the monthly candle is closed. To buyers not to make of her a bull signal even if they will strongly want it. The purpose for the next two days remains at the level of 1,1085.

News of the present day:      

    - Germany will publish data on the volume of retails for April.      
    - in Germany there will be a report on change of number of the unemployed for April.
    - The eurozone will submit preliminary data on a consumer price index for May, unemployment rate for April.
    - Canada – change of GDP for March and 1 quarter.        
    - The USA April, expenses/income of consumers for April will publish a consumer price index.         
    - The USA – an index of business activity in Chicago for May.     
    - The USA – an index of mood of consumers from The Conference Board for May.   

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1134 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1175, closing – 1,1162.

The rate of euro/dollar has encountered resistance about the trend line at the level of Gunn 45 degrees – 1,1150. That to fight desire to buy euro off buyers, sellers need to lower as soon as possible a course lower than 1,1127. In this case new participants of the market will join them, and it is possible to fall to 1,1085. I was limited to the level of 1,1116, but here it is necessary to watch dynamics of the British and cross-country of euro/pound. At the general strengthening of dollar, decline of euro will be stronger, than pound. The purpose for the next two days remains at the level of 1,1085. I expect activity at the American session.

The movement against Friday is expected "May 30, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Friday euro was weakened to the American dollar after speech of the head of the Federal Reserve of the USA J. Yellen. She has hinted at increase of an interest rate in the forthcoming months. According to data of CME Group FedWatch of the future for a rate, probability of her increase in June on Friday I haven't changed and remained at the level of 28%. But in July the probability has grown to 61%. To closing of the auction the rate of euro/dollar has updated a monthly minimum, having fallen to 1,1109. In Asia euro was weakened to 1,1097.

Expectations of the market for today:

In Asia euro was weakened to dollar to 1,1097. In Great Britain and the USA the day off. Economic calendar empty. Traditionally on Monday my forecast against Friday. If on Friday there was an unidirectional impulse, then on Monday I always consider the movement against this movement. If there was флэт, then a shot in the direction of a trend.

On Friday for euro support was found at the level of 1,1130. This level will act as target area. If sellers manage to constrain buyers at this level, so we prepare for the test a mark 1,1080. I recommend to look at a monthly candle. At such bear candle we will quickly return to 1,0830.

News of the present day:      

In Great Britain and the USA the day off.

- Germany will submit preliminary data on a consumer price index.

 - in Canada there will be a balance of the balance of payments in 1 quarter and a price index to industrial goods for April.

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1095, at most – 1,1132, closing – 1,1121.

The rate of euro/dollar has stopped on the 90th degree. Euro likes to be developed from a zone 112-135. It means that the probability of the test of level 1,1084 is high. At present couple is consolidated at the level of 1,11. The last three candles indicate strengthening of euro within correction.

There are no significant news on Monday. In Great Britain and the USA the day off. Because of holidays price fluctuations can appear less than 40 points (the expected scope of a day candle).


If sellers begin to fix profit on short positions and on this background bulls will manage to be fixed higher than 1,1132 then not to avoid recovery of quotations to the 45th degree – 1,1150.

For euro breakdown of the trend line is expected "May 26, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Wednesday following the results of the auction the rate of euro/dollar was closed in small plus. For buyers day was heavy as euro was under pressure from cross rates during the day.

In the first half of day of European Central Bank I announced that will begin to buy corporate bonds in June for 5-10 billion euros within a month. The European Central Bank has pressed for euro, however from falling he was constrained by strong indicators of IFO.

Euro has jumped aside up after has updated a minimum against US dollar. To closing of the auction in Europe he bargained in plus. Today in Asia the course has achieved the yesterday's objectives – 1,1185.  

The USA has published the PMI index in a services sector from Markit. In May business activity has decreased to 51,2 against the forecast 53,1 and 52,8 in April.

Expectations of the market for today:

In the yesterday's review on euro I have written that I wait for kickback to level 1,1185 with which it is possible to look for sales of euro. Now you shouldn't get up in sales for euro. Gold has risen in price in Asia for 10 dollars. The barrel of Brent costs more than 50 dollars. The British becomes stronger to dollar and isn't going to be corrected. The American dollar becomes cheaper on all market. And on pair EUR/USD on Wednesday the turning model "double basis" was created. At such price model and two-day rally of pound, the rate of euro/dollar can return to level 1,1234 to closing of the European session. The scenario on increase will join when closing an hour candle higher than 1,1190.

News of the present day:              

    - Great Britain will be published the second preliminary estimate of GDP growth for 1 quarter 2016, preliminary data on business investments of 1 quarter 2016, an index of business activity in sector of services for March.         
    - the member of FOMC Bullard will act.
    - The USA will publish data on orders for durable goods for April, to applications for a dole in a week on May 15-21.
    - the assistant to the head of RBA Guy Debell will act.       
    - in the USA there will be a report on incomplete transactions on sale of housing in April.

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1149 (flowing in Asia), at most – 1,1234, closing – 1,1223.

The rate of euro/dollar has returned to the trend line. I haven't managed to find out what news stand behind morning falling of dollar rate. I want to warn, sell only euro risky when all currencies become stronger to dollar and gold with oil rises in price.


On Thursday I will risk to go against crowd. Euro has stopped on the 45th degree of Gunn. At the auction to Europe I wait for breakdown of the trend line and growth to the 67th degree. If euro receives acceleration from cross-country of euro/pound, then to closing of the auction in Europe I wait for euro on 1,1234. Because of the "double basis" model it is necessary to wait a little with level 1,1080.

Rebound or we fall below? "May 25, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Tuesday the single currency was weakened to the American dollar to a nine-week minimum after a release of ambiguous data of ZEW and the quarterly inflationary report of Bank of England. On these news the cross rate of euro/pound has failed on 130 points, euro/dollar – on 80 points, to 1,1132.

At the American session euro exchange rate decreased to dollar already against the published favorable data from the USA which have increased probability that FRS will raise interest rates in June. According to the latest data CME Group FedWatch, probability of increase of a rate in June has grown from 26% to 38%.

Sales of new houses in the USA in April have grown by 16,6%, to the level of 619 thousand. Increase by 2,0% was expected. The previous value has been reconsidered from-1,5 to-1,3%.

Expectations of the market for today:

Key event of the environment is the meeting of Bank of Canada. It is expected that the Bank of Canada will leave an interest rate at the level of 0,50%. After a meeting focus of attention of traders will be displaced on Friday speech of the chairman of U.S. Fed J. Yellen.

Late at night there was a report of the American oil institute (API). For the last week reserves of oil of the USA have decreased by-5,137 million barrels (the forecast was-3,3 million, the previous value of-1,14 million).

Despite rally of dollar to many currencies, Brent barrel on Tuesday has risen in price at the American session from $47,78 to $49,22. Growth of oil quotations in Asia has urged on euro to strengthening.

The purpose on the day period – 1,1080. She is about the 135th degree from a maximum 1,1242. Nevertheless, on Wednesday I consider restoration of euro to dollar to the trend line – 1,1185. The explanation is simple. The rate of euro/dollar has fallen to 1,1132 because of sharp falling of cross-country of euro/pound. The unidirectional couples have dispersed in different directions. As the British pound became responsible for a divergence, it is worth expecting the synchronous movement towards the yesterday's movement pound/dollar as it was observed during the period from 12:04 till 03.05.16.

Considering that cross-country of euro/pound is corrected, that strengthening of the British to dollar will be slowed down, and euro – will accelerate. It is worth expecting a rebound from the trend line. If kickback is sharp, then in this case it is necessary to be extremely attentive since fast strengthening of euro will become a signal to the deep ascending correction. If activity of buyers remains low, then it is possible not to be afraid of breakdown of resistance 1,1185.

News of the present day:              

    - in Switzerland there will be a consumption indicator from UBS for April.
    - in the Eurozone there will be an index of consumer climate from Gfk for May.         
    - Germany will publish an index of business climate from Ifo for May.          
    - The USA – a price index on housing for March.        
    - The USA – a preliminary index of business activity in sector of services for May.
    - decision of Bank of Canada on an interest rate.    
    - The USA – reserves of oil and oil products in a week on May 15-21.         

Technical analysis:


Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1134, at most – 1,1185, closing – 1,1161.

Against the growing oil quotations pressure upon EUR/USD has fallen down. Euro exchange rate in Asia was restored to 1,1157. As I have already told above, a main objective for euro – 1,1080. The zone 1,1110 – 1,1084 is turning on Gunn's levels. On May 19 from a zone 112 – 135 гр. I have begun three-day flat. The similar situation can repeat.

Euro continues to be trading in a lateral trend "May 24, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

At the American session the rate of euro/dollar could be restored to 1,1230 after falling to 1,1187 at the beginning of the New York session. The production PMI index has appeared below the forecast, than has helped single currency to become stronger to the American dollar.

The preliminary production PMI index has fallen in May to 50,5 with 50,8 in April (the forecast was 51,0).

Expectations of the market for today:

The last three days the currency pair is trading in a lateral trend between levels 1,1179 and 1,1240. On the day period the road to 1,11 is opened for sellers. They need to pass 1,1180.

Pay attention to one moment. On weak American statistics sellers can't press through euro under 1,12. On May 19 and 23 couple sharply jumped aside up. I connect it with a technical picture on day TF. Day indicators indicate the ascending correction.

The situation is ambiguous therefore it is necessary to wait for a price exit from price range. For today I have allocated range 1,1188 – 1,1222. Since morning I have touched different price models. I have stopped on V-shaped. I didn't begin to do scenarios on break of borders of range on graphics, I have specified only the movement as a percentage and points.

News of the present day:              

    - in Germany there will be a final gain of GDP beyond 1 quarter 2016.
    - Germany and an evorzona will publish indexes of economic moods of ZEW for May.
    - Parliamentary hearings concerning inflation in Great Britain. The head of Bank of England Carney's Brands, and also Ben Broadbent, Martin Vail and Gertyan Vlige will act.
    - in Great Britain there will be data on the volume of retails from CBI for May.
    - report of European Central Bank on financial stability. Mario Draghi can act.    
    - The USA will present data on sales at primary housing market for April.
    - The USA – the Index of business activity in production from FRB-Richmond for May.

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1188, at most – 1,1222, closing – 1,1208.

Euro/dollar is trading in a lateral trend. From above buyers are drawn in by the trend line. Buyers try to protect level 1,1180. On Tuesday I have chosen the movement in the range of 1,1188 - 1,1222. Not the fact that the price it will be necessary to bargain between these levels. I consider that day indicators need to unload. It is better to look for sales of euro in a zone 1,1320-1,1350.

EUR/USD: within correction kickback to the trend line is expected "May 20, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:
On Thursday, the euro / dollar traded mixed. In the first half of the day the euro down to around 1.1179 (was under pressure from the cross pairs), the second - back to 1.1227.
Minutes of the last FOMC meeting showed that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in June, subject to release strong economic performance. Here are the latest data CME Group FedWatch, decreased from 38% to 30% Thursday Chance of a rate hike in June. I think this is due to the performance of the representatives of the United States Fisher and Fed Dudley. They stated that the Fed will make decisions based on fundamental data. Nothing new, they said, but suspended the dollar's rally.
The index of leading indicators in the US in April was 0.6% (forecast was 0.6%, previous 0.0%).
Number of applications for benefits in the US unemployment rate fell to 278 thousand. Against 294 thousand. The previous week (the forecast was 275 thousand.)
The index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 1.8 vs. 3.5 and the previous value of -1.6%.
Market expectations for today:
Today is not rich in news. Traders will make trading decisions based on the Fed minutes and the latest published economic data. Thursday formed a reversal pattern (V).
In structure, it turned out weak, but if the cross goes into a correctional phase before the weekend, the euro / dollar rate will adjust to 1.1260. While the euro will not be corrected until the trend line, I will not consider the weakening of the euro against the US dollar.
News of the day:

    - Germany will release the producer price index for April.
    - An index of factory orders will be released in the UK.
    - Canada will present data on consumer prices, the volume of retail sales.
    - In the United States - the sale on the secondary housing market in April.
    - The number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.
Technical analysis:
Intraday outlook: at least - 1.1196 (current in Asia), the maximum - 1.1259, closing - 1.1235.

On the evening of the goal of Euro 1.1260

Over the past twenty-six hours the difference between pairs of unidirectional reduced. The euro / dollar rose to 48 points from 1.1179 to 1.1227, EUR / GBP was down 113 points from 1.4663 to 1.4550. The spread between the pair declined due to recovery EUR / GBP cross. To increase its pushed published European statistics.
The volume of industrial orders in May amounted to -8 vs. -13 and the previous value of -11. The surplus account of the eurozone current account rebounded to 27.3 billion euros against 19.6 billion euros forecast and the previous value of 19.2 billion euros. without taking into account seasonal fluctuations surplus increased to 32.3 billion euros against 11.2 billion euros in February.
In the evening, there are data in Canada and the United States. Data on consumer price inflation in Canada and sales of existing homes in the US for a short time can cause sharp fluctuations in the market ahead of the weekend.
I believe that the pair EUR / USD is necessary to grow up to 1.1250 / 60, the pair GBP / USD - fall to 1.4490 - 1.4508. In this case, the pair are balanced at these levels. On Monday, the course will stand at that level (flat) and Tuesday, the dollar may continue its rally to all currencies.

The pound has become stronger on retails "May 19, 2016"

Rate of euro/dollar and pound/dollar, hour period.

The yesterday's protocol of the last meeting of Committee of the Open market of U.S. Fed (FOMC) has strengthened probability June increase of a rate. The dollar has become stronger on all market, except for the British pound which has beaten off the main currencies. Since May 16 he has grown to dollar by 300 points, to 1,4638, and to euro – by 236 points, to 0,7657.   

The pound becomes stronger against increase in number of British who want that Great Britain remained as a part of the EU. At the auction in Europe he has jumped up to 1,4663 on strong data on retails in Great Britain.

Retails in Great Britain in April have grown by 1,3% of m/m after decline by 0,5% in March and above the forecast of 0,5%. The previous value has been reconsidered from-1,3%. Have increased in annual basis of sale for 4,3%, and data for March have been revised towards increase from 2,7% to 3,0%.

The USA will publish data on requests for a dole, an index of activity of FRB of Philadelphia today, and also speech of representatives of U.S. Fed of Fischer and Dudley is expected.

Until traders sell euro in cross-couple of euro/pound, euro/dollar will remain vulnerable before further decrease. The unidirectional pairs EUR/USD and pound/dollar have dispersed in different directions. Time to reduce the formed spread has come. The rate of euro/dollar has to return to 1,1240, and pound/dollar – to 1,4540.

EUR/USD: before the FOMC protocols can update a minimum "May 18, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Tuesday the rate of euro/dollar was closed by insignificant decrease, having left a shadow on a maximum 1,1348. I can't explain, than euro turn after a release of the report on inflation which has increased has been caused. Perhaps because of the rising in price oil.

When it became known that the April consumer price index in the USA left better than expectations, the rate of euro/dollar has decreased to 1,1301.

We haven't seen rally of dollar also on positive data on industrial production. The index of industrial production in the USA in April has made 0,7% in comparison with the forecast of 0,2% and the previous value of-0,9%. Also in the States the volume of construction of new houses has increased, and the dollar hasn't grown. Asian participants of the market began to work yesterday's statistical data.

Expectations of the market for today:

Today FOMC minutes will become a key event for dollar. According to the forecast I wait for the test of a zone 1,1255/60 in the first half of day with the subsequent rebound to 1,1304 after the publication of protocols.

News of the present day:              

    - in Great Britain there will be data on labor market: index of change of an average salary, change of number of applications for a dole, unemployment rate.
    - the eurozone will publish final data on a consumer price index for April.           
    - Great Britain – an index of the advancing indicators from Conference Board for March.
    - The USA – change of reserves of oil on May 9-15.
    - The USA – FOMC minutes exit.

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1258, at most – 1,1304, closing – 1,1304.

EUR/USD: for the evening the purpose 1,1285 "May 17, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

As expected, on Monday the rate of euro/dollar was in a correctional phase during the day. Euro was restored against the American dollar to a mark 1,1342 after decrease in production activity in New York to-9,02 against the forecast +6,50. To closing of trading day of steam I have returned to level 1,1315. The movement has completely coincided with the expected scenario.

Expectations of the market for today:

Today the attention of traders will be riveted on data on a rate of inflation in Great Britain and the USA. Later three representatives of U.S. Fed will act. Day will be not simple for single currency as in Asia pound and the Australian have considerably become stronger to all currencies.

The rate of the British pound has reacted with growth to the last poll of ORB for Daily Telegraph on an exit of Great Britain from the EU.

According to the latest data of poll, 55% of British want to remain in the EU. The course pound/dollar has grown by 85 points, to 1,4493, the rate of euro/pound has fallen to 50 points, to 0,7810. In this regard euro has appeared under pressure together with dollar.  

On this swing of euro/dollar it is capable to return to 1,1338/45. At the American session I expect falling to 1,1285. It is the only day when sellers can update a minimum, then traders will begin to take positions before a release of protocols of U.S. Fed.

News of the present day:              

    - Great Britain will publish the report on consumer and production inflation.
    - in the eurozone there will be data on foreign trade.
    - in Germany there will be a monthly report of Bundesbank.
    - Canada – change of sales volume at producers for March.          
    - The USA – number of the issued construction licenses, a consumer price index, laying of new houses for April.
    - The USA – change of industrial output for April.  
    - performance of the member of FOMC Lockhart and Williams.
    - performance of the member of FOMC Kaplan.

Technical analysis:

Intra day forecast: at least – 1,1285, at most – 1,1338, closing – 1,1300.

The pound and Australian dollar have become stronger to US dollar on 80 points everyone. Despite such strengthening of currencies, I will risk to consider depreciation of euro to 1,1285 for today. On the hour period there is no completeness of a bear trend from a maximum 1,1616.

On pair EUR/USD support on the hour period passes through level 1,1309. On strong statistics depreciation of euro to dollar to 1,1285 is expected. If traders sell euro in cross-countries, then it is possible to fall also to 1,1260. The pound in this case will return to a mark 1,4417. At an exit of weak statistics of euro/dollar will return to 1,1355. Before the tomorrow's FOMC protocols you shouldn't expect long impulses in the main couples.

The USA doesn't hide any more that they have owed to Saudi Arabia $120 billion

For the first time for the last 40 years of the USA have disclosed the sum of the debt to Saudi Arabia. As it has appeared, the USA as of March of the current year owed Saudi Arabia $116,8 billion. At the beginning of a year the debt reached $120 billion, but by March has been reduced. The debt of the USA to Saudi Arabia is presented by the state bonds. It is not the largest sum of debt of the USA to the third countries. Other large holders of the American state bonds are China and Japan, and each of this countries of USA is owed by more than $1 trillion.

Most likely, the operating administration has decided to open information on the size of a debt to Saudi Arabia, on the one hand, to show that U.S. authorities led by the leaving Obama aren't afraid of any blackmail, and with another – to show to the whole world that actually the debt of the USA to Saudis isn't so big as debt to China or Japan.

However, most likely, the high-ranking Saudi officials own in the USA not only the state bonds, but also other assets. Sale by Saudi Arabia even of small part of a debt of the USA can bring down dollar and not only because the sum essential but because similar actions can provoke to similar acts of other larger creditors. In this case not to avoid serious weakening of dollar rate to world currencies, and no U.S. Fed with the interest rate will help any more.

The USA has refused disclosure of information on the size of the debt of Saudi Arabia 40 years ago. It has been made at the request of the authorities of the kingdom in 1973, otherwise Saudi Arabia threatened to refuse to sell oil to the United States and to buy from them the weapon. Why the USA has suddenly revised the decision?

Most likely, it can be connected with the fact that Saudi Arabia at which the relations with the USA this year have deteriorated, has threatened America to sell assets for $750 billion. And the American position on Syria which, from the point of view of Saudi Arabia, is insufficiently consecutive concerning the president of Syria Bashar al-Assad became the reason of deterioration in the relations. And also the law adopted recently by the Congress of the USA which allows to impose sanctions against the high-ranking officials of Saudi Arabia if their slightest participation in acts of terrorism, unprecedented on scale, in the USA only is established on September 11, 2001.

USD/CAD Destiny of a medium-term trend. Trade signals "May 13, 2016"

At the beginning of 2016 we have closed the main part of Weekly of the transaction on strengthening of the American dollar to Canadian and have opened medium-term short positions. Long traded in this direction - opened both week, and day positions, including the movement for priority down. Today quotations of USD/CAD have approached very important levels about which couple, perhaps, will be defined whether to continue this descending trend or again to return to ascending.

Month. April is closed by the large descending candle, but at the strong level - area of 76-78% fibo from the last strengthening of Month. At such levels it is always possible to count if not on a turn then on essential correction. If May is closed at the levels close to current, then such candle will speak about a potential turn, and it is possible that following the results of closing of May we will see a trade signal of Month. But while there is no it, it is possible to operate transactions in a taymfreyma not above Weekly.

Week. The last week of April (from 24.04.16) - descending, but the size its small that speaks about possible delay of decrease. This week precisely at the level of 76-78 fibo was closed by Month. The week following her has updated of 01.05.16 a minimum about the specified supports and was closed by the large ascending candle, by the size much exceeding previous - the model reminding bull absorption. And it means that from this point any day signals in Bai not only are actual, but also have prospect to pass into larger time-frame.

Daily. In day scale we see Woolf's Wave, and the second, main, the purpose on this model coincides with day 200-periodny moving average. Trading day is closed on May 12 by potentially turning candle. Above her maximum it is possible to open transactions on strengthening of the American dollar to Canadian to a main goal till Centuries. It is possible to leave small part on prospect in case on the scale of weeks or months the movement will continue.

Recommendations:

Long positions

(a) above a maximum of Thursday May 12, a main objective about 1,314.

Intermediate it is possible to take about a maximum of May 9 or on any H4 a turn.

(b) If the model of potentially turning bar doesn't fulfill in Long, then to look for long on any other turning D1 model from subordinate levels, isn't broken Centuries yet.

Short positions

(c) carefully when fixing lower than 1.283 - to area of support of about 1,275 or lower supports about 76-78 fibo.

On equipment long positions look more in priority. Share indexes try decrease that promotes fall of quotations of raw assets, and, therefore, and oil. The only thing that against long positions on USD/CAD, is that oil doesn't show decrease yet. But at all this I prefer to be guided by technical signals. Because in practice I was convinced in truth of the main postulate of Dow more than once - "the price considers everything". In technical signals opinions of all significant participants of the market and all possible influencing factors including those which aren't published in news lines are put. We have trade day signals for both directions, we can act on them, leaving and increasing a position in that direction which will be confirmed in higher taymfreyma.

Euro heads to 1,1282

At the beginning of the European session the rate of euro/dollar has fallen to 1,1328, a course pound/dollar – to 1,4378. Euro and pound were weakened against the general strengthening of US dollar after a release of the German data on inflation, GDP of Germany and the Eurozone for the first quarter.

Traders were disturbed by a deflation. The April indicator of inflation has decreased. Preliminary GDP of Germany for the first quarter has grown, and in annual basis has decreased. Preliminary GDP of the eurozone for the first quarter was worse than expectations.

Euro is trading on 1,1350, pound/dollar – on 1,4408. The course Australian dollar/US dollar tries to update a week minimum. Participants of the market waiting for a release of the American reports on retails and consumer moods.

The rate of euro/dollar on the day period has punched the trend line. Now the road is open to a mark 1,1282. Sellers can reach it today or on Monday in the first half of day. It is desirable for sellers to keep level 1,1370. As soon as level 1,1282 is passed, it is possible to aim on 1,1145. It is fulfilled week Pin Bar.

Euro has beaten off the day trend line "May 12, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Wednesday the rate of euro/dollar was restored with 1,1370 to 1,1446. For all day of eurobulls I supported by the growth euro/pound cross rate. The British was weakened against single currency after a release of data on industrial production and manufacturing industry of Great Britain.

At the American session the dollar was weakened after a release of the report of the Ministry of Energy of the USA on oil reserves. In a week from April 30 to May 6 reserves of crude oil have dropped by 3,4 million barrels, to 540 million barrels. Their increase by 0,5 million barrels was expected. Oil production has decreased from 8,825 to 8,802 million barrels.

On news oil has risen in price for 5,5% to 47,70. Together with her and euro. In fact there were no fundamental reasons for strengthening of euro. But the technical signal – a release from the day trend line has worked.

Expectations of the market for today:

On day TF the rate of euro/dollar has jumped aside from the trend line. While the price is below a mark 1,1494, I will wait for realization of a week signal on a pinbara. Today without forecast. I think, Thursday sign day for euro. The Bank of England will publish the decision on monetary policy. Cross-country of euro/pound on Wednesday increased, today can decrease. It is unknown that else M. Carney will tell. If following the results of day demand for euro decreases, then on Friday will consider depreciation of euro to dollar to level 1,13 again.

News of the present day:              

    - the Eurozone will publish data on industrial production for March.     
    - in Great Britain will leave: report on inflation of Bank of England, decision and results of vote on an interest rate, volume of the program of purchase of assets.
    - the head of Bank of England Mark Carney will act.                      
    - in Canada there will be a price index in primary housing market for March. In the USA data on labor market and the prices of import.
    - the member of FOMC Rozengren will act.
    - the member of FOMC George will act.                

Technical analysis:

The yesterday's forecast was fulfilled specularly. The rate of euro/dollar has risen to the upper bound of the canal which has been built on three values – 1,1385-1,1358 and 1,1479. At 7:18 Moscow time couple bargains on 1,1424. On week and day TF the situation has slightly changed after yesterday. Gold and the Australian/dollar decrease. Euro derives strength from cross-countries at present – the euro/Australian and euro/yen. If on later performances of M. Carney the pound is weakened, then euro/dollar will return to level 1,1385. If isn't present, then eurobulls will begin to be going to pass level 1,1480.

Oil has risen in price against reduction of stocks and oil production "May 12, 2016"

On Wednesday the barrel of Brent has risen in price to $47,71 after a release of the report of the Ministry of Energy of the USA. The report has reflected unexpected reduction of stocks and oil production in the USA. For the last week, till May 6, reserves of crude oil have decreased by 3,4 million barrels, to 540 million barrels. Their increase by 0,5 million barrels was expected. Oil production has decreased from 8,825 to 8,802 million barrels.

Positive impact on oil quotations was also exerted by messages on interruptions in supply of oil on the world market from Canada and Nigeria (in Canada – the fires, in Nigeria – the armed attacks to objects of oil infrastructure).

According to the latest data, firefighters managed to take under control wildfires the city of Fort-Makmyurrey and his vicinities in the northeast of the province of Albert. The fires have led to closing 40% of oil wells of the country and to reduction of oil production by different estimates from 2,5 to 3 million barrels a day.

On May 6 fighters in Nigeria have blown up an oil derrick of the American company Chevron. In the Shell Petroleum Development Co environment. of Nigeria (SPDC) declared existence of the force majeur circumstances interfering export supply of oil on the Bonny Light pipeline in Nigeria transfers Interfax.

As we see, the news background promotes an increase in prices for oil. In Asia the price raised to $47,80. I don't exclude increase of quotations in the moment to $48,26 (at most of 29.04). Considering, that gold becomes cheaper, and the dollar rises in price, I will risk to consider on hours after updating of a maximum kickback to the trend line 46,78 in the form of a zigzag.

Brent: sellers have taken the level of $42,20 in a sight

On Monday the auction on oil of a grade Brent has opened at the level of $46,15 for barrel. The price gap has made +1,8%. Oil has risen in price against resignation of the Saudi minister of oil and wildfires in Canada.

On Saturday May 7 the king of Saudi Arabia Salman ibn Abdul-Aziz Al Saod has ousted the head of the ministry of oil Ali an-Nuaymi in connection with abolition of department. Instead of the ministry of oil the Ministry of Energy, the industries and mineral resources which was headed by the head of the Saudi Aramco oil company have been created.

Canada burns. The area of wildfires in the Canadian province of Albert has reached 200 thousand hectares. The woods burn since May 1. The strong fires have forced the oil companies to reduce oil production by 1 million barrels a day, Bloomberg notes. Experts believe that if temperature doesn't decrease and wind won't cease, several months won't be possible to put out the fires. 

Yesterday in the second half of day the barrel of Brent has fallen in price by 6,0%, to $43,30. No news stood behind falling of the prices. At inability of buyers to be fixed of higher than $46,76 for the market the bear moods caused by statements of the minister of oil of Iran Bidzhan Zangane who on Sunday has declared that Iran doesn't accept the plan for a freezing of level of production of oil offered by Saudi Arabia have returned.

On cycles correction to the trend line of $42,67 is looked through, but there are also risks to fall to $42,20/30 for barrel.

As the zone of support of $44,17 – $44,43 is passed, and the economic calendar is empty for today, according to the forecast it is more expedient to consider decrease in oil quotations to $42,20 today. Perhaps, for Tuesday the level of $42,20 low and slightly shocking. If the price doesn't keep up with the expected line, then as the purpose it is possible to predict the level of $42,60.

Gold: reduction of prices to $1256 is expected

Hour schedule of XAUUSD

On Friday the price of yellow metal has jumped up for 1,4%, to $1295,38 for troy ounce. Gold has risen in price after the publication of the report on the American labor market which hasn't met expectation of the market. Weak data can force U.S. Fed to wait a little with further increase of interest rates.

In April in the USA in nonagricultural sector it has been created new workplaces of 160 thousand against the forecast of 195 thousand. The February indicator has been reconsidered towards reduction from 245 to 233 thousand, a March indicator – from 215 to 208 thousand. Unemployment remained at the level of 5%. The share of economically active population has decreased on 0,2, to 62,8%.

It should be noted that gold has risen in price together with US dollar. 

From the technical point of view bulls are in an advantageous position now. In medium-term prospect me increase in prices for gold to the level of $1340 (to the middle of October of the current year), in short-term – kickback to $1205 is expected (38.2% of growth from 1046,23 to 1303,62).

The report of COT – futures and options

According to the last report of COT (Commitments of Traders) which appears every Friday and includes open positions of traders till May 3 bull moods have considerably amplified.

Large speculators (Non-commercial) have increased a long position (long) by 53,5 thousand, to 356,5 thousand contracts. Short positions (Short) were reduced by 3,05 thousand, to 56,6 thousand contracts. The pure position on purchase of gold has increased by 56,6 thousand contracts to 299,9 thousand. Here It should be noted that at significant increase in long positions, the covering (Spreding column) has increased by 39,5 thousand contracts. Not all trust in a gold rise in price, are insured.

As for small speculators, at them uncertainty reigns too. They have increased both long, and short positions on gold by May 4. Open interest has grown by 113,2 thousand contracts to 816,9 thousand. Open interest has exceeded the level of the beginning of March and became maximum since July 23, 2013.

On a peyrolsa (Non-Farm Payrolls) gold has risen in price to $1295,43. As we know, traders have refused to sell dollar on Friday and Monday, than have caused fixing (closing of long positions) on gold. Following the results of day the course XAU/USD has decreased by 2,1%, to $1261,17.

Gold bargains for $1265,82. After insignificant correction to $1271 decline in the rate to $1256 is expected (38.2% of growth from 1227,32 to 1303,62). On week TF ideal kickback I see to the area $1205 (38,2% of growth with 1046,23 to 1795,80).

After a peyrols the ascending correction is expected "May 9, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

After a Friday peyrols (NFP) on the week schedule of euro/dollar it was created Pin Bar euro indicating easing.  

Unemployment rate in the USA in April remained at the level of 5%. The number of workplaces in nonagricultural sector of economy has grown by 160 thousand against the forecast of 195 thousand. The February indicator is reconsidered towards reduction from 245 to 233 thousand, a March indicator - from 215 to 208 thousand. The share of economically active population has decreased on 0,2, to 62,8%.

At an indicator in 160 thousand and a labor share in 62,8%, euro/dollar has to depart to 1,1550. On news the rate of euro/dollar has raised to 1,1479 and to closing of the auction has returned to level 1,1400. To me reaction of traders to the report is personally unclear. It is only possible to tell that they don't want to sell dollar now.

Expectations of the market for today:

Today Monday therefore I don't pay attention to news and I wait for correction to the trend line 1,1430. At the same level the 45th degree is placed. You shouldn't be surprised even to if the rate of euro/dollar rises to 1,1450/60.  

News of the present day:

     Germany will publish data on production orders for March.
     in Switzerland there will be an index consumer the qualification April.  
     Great Britain will present a price index on housing from Halifax.    
     the deputy head of Bank of England Andrew Bailey will make the speech.
     in the Eurozone there will be a business confidence index from Sentix.
    the speech will be made by the member of FOMC Charles Evans.

Technical analysis:

Traders the opening long positions on the weak report of NFP, before days off it was necessary to close. Analyzing reaction of the market to the report and open positions in the report of COT, I come to opinion that at first euro/dollar descends down to the area 1,1320/30. As soon as it is fulfilled Pin Bar, couple will move to 1,1730, forming the ascending wedge on the week schedule. On Monday I wait for kickback to the 45th degree 1,1430.

FOREX the forecast of EUR/USD for week 5/9/2016 — 5/13/2016

The dollar has appeared under pressure on Friday after the publication of the report on labor market in the USA. Change of number occupied in nonagricultural sector (Non-farm Payrolls) has made 160 thousand, the market the indicator at the level of 203 thousand was expected. Unemployment has remained at the level of 5,0%, an average hourly salary – at the level of 0,3%.

Weak economic indicators haven't confirmed the continuing improvement of a situation in the USA that has strengthened fears concerning increase of interest rates from FRS. It should be noted that before the publication the probability of toughening of monetary policy of U.S. Fed at a meeting in June was estimated approximately at 11%.
Technical analysis and forecast of EUR/USD

EUR/USD steam decreases after the test of the upper bound of the ascending channel. The indicator of relative force has shown a rebound from resistance level down that indicates correction continuation. Within the forecast of EUR/USD for week 5/9/2016 — 5/13/2016 depreciation of euro with the first purpose in area 1,1300 is expected.

To a peyrols depreciation of euro to 1,1370 is expected "May 6, 2016"

Results of the last trading day:

On Thursday US dollar exchange rate has grown against the main currencies. In the last review on the European session I have written that traders correct the positions before today's report on employment in the USA for April.

Despite increase in number of applications for a dole to the USA, a rate of euro/dollar to closing of the auction in Europe has fallen to 1,1385. In a week the number of primary applications for a dole has increased to 274 thousand against the forecast of 260 thousand.

Neither the ADP index, nor applications for a dole can help us to predict Non-Farm Payrolls indicator. For this reason, many traders try to worry peyrols out of the market. But there are also such traders who specially wait for the first Friday of month to catch a wave.

Expectations of the market for today:

The rate of euro/dollar has stopped on the trend line. As well as yesterday couple twelve hours are consolidated in narrow range at the level of 1,1400. 

In day of a peyrols I always considered kickback or lateral motion, today from discovery of Europe I wait for depreciation of euro to 1,1370. Business in volume, the Australian currency was weakened to dollar after the publication of the report on a monetary policy of Reserve bank of Australia. I consider, euro will be weakened to US dollar behind couple the Australian/US dollar.  

News of the present day:

   - in Canada and the USA there will be data on labor markets (changes of quantity occupied, an average hourly salary, number of workplaces in nonagricultural sector and unemployment rate).

   - in Canada there will be an index of business activity from Ivey.    

   - the deputy manager of Bank of Canada of Lawrence Shambri will act.

   – number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.

Technical analysis:

On Thursday the rate of euro/dollar has fallen to the trend line and the D3 line. Together they have formed strong support, but narrow price range indicates couples further decrease. The zone between 112-135 degrees is turning, but today there will be a report on the American labor market. After this report the price in several minutes deviates on 100 and more points (4 signs after a comma).

For today it is possible to allocate borders for price fluctuations. If NFP appears below the forecast and data in two months will be revised towards decrease, the rate of euro/dollar will return to 1,1520. If it is higher than 200 thousand, then we go below to 1,1300-1,1320.

5 councils for opening of the business

5 councils for opening of the business

In our rough world, each person would like to open own business and to get from him good profit.

However uncertainty in own forces, negative (they false) installations, criticism, lack of support, as a rule, get in the way to success from people around, etc. Factors which prevent to achieve a goal it is possible to call much. The main thing – not to pay attention to them.

In this article, we will give several councils for those who want to open the business.

1. Find motivation

For creation of own business, you have to have a huge motivation. You like those conditions and that life which you lead at the moment? If isn't present – means it is necessary to change this business cardinally. Think that you will find in case of success – financial independence, respect from people around, the new status, etc. It is very important that your motivation didn't die away, and I became stronger and stronger every day.

2. Look for ideas

All finest and great began the existence with idea. The idea is the base of all undertakings! And, as they say, one thousand bad ideas, than their total absence are better.

3. Don't pay attention to criticism

Often, beginners in business and their projects give in to severe criticism. Because of it many people don't decide to open the business. An exit simple – to listen only to himself and those who have already achieved something in this direction.

4. Money – not a problem

There is a delusion that without big financial investments business won't be successful. It's not true!
Many people begin with small expenses and gradually, in process of development, increase them. Such strategy brings result!

5. Work on yourself

Read much, improve the knowledge and skills, attend lectures and seminars, you watch news, analyze them. Knowledge – a bargaining chip in any business. And the you will be better to know the specialization, the bigger success you expects.

American focus: the US dollar has weakened against the majority of the main currencies "May 2, 2016"

The US dollar has considerably fallen in price against euro, having reached a minimum on August 26, 2015 that has been caused by technical factors and the publication of weak statistics on the USA. 

The final data submitted to Markit have shown: taking into account seasonal fluctuations the production PMI index has decreased in April to 50,8 with 51,5 in March. Value has coincided with a preliminary estimate and forecasts. However, the index has fallen below an average value for the 1st quarter 2016 (51,7) and has indicated the weakest improvement of the general conditions in a little more than 6,5 years. Production has almost not changed in April, and rates of expansion were minimum since October, 2009. 
In Markit have declared that weak client demand, uncertainty concerning economic prospects and lower capital expenses in energetic sector, put pressure upon industrial production in April. Meanwhile, producers have recorded small increase in orders again, but growth rates were the weakest since December, 2015.
The volume of new orders from abroad was reduced by the maximum rates for 1,5 years, and the number of outstanding orders has decreased in the third time in a row, having written down the greatest rates since September, 2009. Against it rates of creation of new workplaces were the weakest almost in three years.

Meanwhile, the report published by Institute of management of deliveries has shown: the production index has fallen in April to 50,8 with 51,8 in March. It was expected that the indicator will decrease to 51,5. Activity in a manufacturing sector fell since the end of 2014 because of a collapse in prices for oil and decreases in demand for export, the reason for which was a deterioration in an economic situation abroad and strengthening of dollar.

The British pound has become stronger against US dollar, having reached the highest level since January 5. Experts note that today's increase of couple has been caused only by universal weakening of the American currency. The US dollar has begun to become cheaper actively after last Wednesday FRS left a rate at the former level and hasn't given accurate signals concerning whether to wait for growth of a rate in June. Such decision has been made by the central bank against ambiguous signals from world economy and the slowed-down inflation in the USA. Preservation of low interest rates negatively affects the American currency, doing it less attractive to investors. Now futures for interest rates of FRS specify that the probability of increase of a rate in June makes 17%.

Later this week investors will monitor the British data on business activity in a manufacturing sector, a segment of construction and a services sector. It is expected that the production index has grown in April to 51,2 with 51,0, the PMI index for the sphere of construction has decreased to 54,0 with 54,2, and the PMI index for sector of services has fallen to 53,6 with 53,7.